Bank of Scotland July’s PMI: strong start to 3Q of 2017 for the Scottish private sector

  • Headline PMI rises to 53.8, the highest since October 2014
  • Solid expansions in new business and employment
  • Trend of expansion in combined manufacturing and services output extends to its longest sequence since 2014

EDINBURGH, 15-Aug-2017 — /EuropaWire/ — July’s PMI® survey data from the Bank of Scotland signalled a strong start to the third quarter of 2017 for the Scottish private sector.

Output rose at the fastest pace in nearly three years, reflecting stronger expansions in both manufacturing and services. Increased output was driven by a steady expansion in new business in July. The manufacturing sector registered strong growth in new orders, while new business in the service sector rose at a comparatively moderate rate.

The seasonally adjusted headline Bank of Scotland PMI, a single-figure measure of the month-on-month change in combined manufacturing and services output, rose to 53.8 in July, from 51.1 in June. The latest data indicated the strongest growth of Scottish private sector output in 33 months. It also extended the current trend of expansion to eight months, the longest sequence since 2014.

Job creation was at a 31-month high in the latest survey, signalling an expansion in the Scottish private sector workforce for the second month running. Comments gathered in the survey suggested that firms responded to higher output requirements by hiring additional staff.

Finally, sentiment towards the future remained positive overall, and matched June’s confidence reading.

Fraser Sime, Regional Director, Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking said:

“July’s survey results signalled the Scottish private sector moving up a gear, as the PMI posted its strongest result in 33 months. This good news was fuelled by the service sector returning to meaningful growth, alongside a faster increase in manufacturing output.

“Job creation remained positive for the second month running, with July marking the fastest expansion in employment in over two-and-a-half years. Employment growth was consistent across the manufacturing and service sectors.

“Input price inflation remained strong in the latest survey, with many firms citing wage inflation and the exchange rate. That said, the positive effects of a subdued currency could be seen in the growth of manufacturing exports in July.

Full release

For further information, please contact:
Claire McKenzie
Assistant Communications Business Partner
Commercial Banking

Sam Teague
Economist, IHS Markit
01491 461 018


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