NatWest Regional PMI® Survey: UK Business Activity Grows, Confidence Improves
(IN BRIEF) The latest NatWest Regional PMI® survey reveals that business activity expanded across most UK regions in February, accompanied by an uptick in business confidence fueled by rising demand. While regions such as London saw robust growth, others like Wales experienced a decline in output. Cost pressures intensified nationwide, particularly in London, driven by factors like rising input prices and disruptions in the shipping industry. Despite varied labor market trends, optimism about future activity increased across many regions, signaling a positive outlook amid persistent challenges in hiring and inflationary pressures. Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, noted the promising growth trends but highlighted ongoing cautiousness in hiring decisions amidst mixed employment trends across regions.
(PRESS RELEASE) LONDON, 12-Mar-2024 — /EuropaWire/ — The latest NatWest Regional PMI® survey showed business activity growing across most parts of the UK in February. Business confidence also generally picked up amid a more broad-based improvement in underlying demand. Labour market trends remained more varied, however, with firms in most areas reporting stronger cost pressures and low capacity utilisation.
The PMI Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled.
Two-thirds of the monitored UK nations and regions recorded business activity growth in February. London remained out in front despite seeing its pace expansion ease to a three-month low (index at 56.5). At the other end of the scale, Wales (47.5) posted a solid and accelerated fall in output, while declines were also seen in the North East (47.5), Yorkshire & Humber (48.3) and South West (49.3).
Demand
February data showed a growing number of areas reporting higher inflows of new business. There were renewed upturns in Scotland, the South East and the East of England, while the strongest overall increase was once again recorded in London. Firms in Yorkshire & Humber, Wales and the North East by contrast reported further reductions in new work.
Prices
Cost pressures intensified across most parts of the UK in February. Input prices continued growing fastest in London, where the rate of inflation quickened to a six-month high. Only in the East of England and Scotland did costs rise more slowly compared with January. Northern Ireland* saw the weakest overall increase and was unique in recording a rate of cost inflation below its long-run average.
Firms in London recorded the sharpest overall rise in prices charged for goods and services in February, as has been the case in five of the past six months. They were followed by those in the East of England. Rates of output price inflation generally quickened, except for in Scotland and the West Midlands. The slowest increase in charges was once again seen in Northern Ireland.
Capacity
Scotland topped the rankings for employment growth for the fourth time in the past five months in February, pushing London back down into second place. The East of England, Northern Ireland, South West and South East all saw slight increases in workforce numbers, while the North West recorded no change. Job cuts were seen everywhere else.
Falling backlogs of work remained a common theme across the UK during February, in a sign of a general lack of pressure on business capacity. The South East saw the most marked decrease, followed by Wales. Only London recorded a rise in outstanding business, though even there the increase was marginal and slower than seen in January.
Outlook
Business expectations improved in the majority of areas in February. The South East recorded the highest degree of optimism, the first time this has been the case for eight months. Confidence was lowest in the North East, which was one of just two areas where sentiment weakened from the month before (along with the West Midlands).
* PMI survey coverage in Northern Ireland includes construction and retail, as well as manufacturing and services.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:
“These latest PMI figures build on the positive start to the year we reported last month, with business activity rising in the majority of nations and regions in February. Encouragingly, growth in most cases is being supported by increasing levels of new business, indicating a pick-up in underlying demand and hinting that the upturn as has legs.”
“Business confidence has generally perked up and in many areas has improved considerably since the start of the year, in a further boost to the outlook.”
“Price pressures generally increased across the UK in February, with businesses reporting a combination of growing wage demands and costs increases related to the Red Sea shipping disruption. Inflation indicators remain particularly high in London, but they have picked up again in most other areas, too.”
“With falling backlogs of work suggesting a lack on strain on business capacity, and wage pressures remaining persistently high, we’re still seeing some caution towards hiring. The UK labour market as a whole is treading water amid mixed sub-national trends in employment.”
February 2024 NatWest UK Regional PMI®
PMI® report
Notes to editors
Methodology
The NatWest UK Regional PMI® data are compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to companies that participate in S&P Global’s UK PMI surveys. S&P Global compiles data for nine English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (NUTS 1 definitions).
Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.
The headline figure for each region is the Business Activity Index. This is a diffusion index calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity (at service providers) or output (at manufacturers) compared with one month previously. The Business Activity Index is comparable to the UK Composite Output Index. It is sometimes referred to as the ‘PMI’, but is not comparable with the headline UK Manufacturing PMI figure.
Underlying survey data are not revised after publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series.
The survey data for February were collected 12-27 February 2024.
For further information on the PMI survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.
About PMI
Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) surveys are now available for over 40 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi.
About S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI)
S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world.
We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. www.spglobal.com.
Disclaimer
The intellectual property rights to the data provided herein are owned by or licensed to S&P Global and/or its affiliates. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without S&P Global’s prior consent. S&P Global shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“Data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the Data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall S&P Global be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the Data. Purchasing Managers’ Index™ and PMI® are either trade marks or registered trade marks of S&P Global Inc or licensed to S&P Global Inc and/or its affiliates.
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Media Contact:
Jonathan.rennie@natwest.com
Regional Campaign Manager
SOURCE: NatWest
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- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the Company’s General Shareholders Meeting resolutions adopted on 18 May 2021 approving, amongst others, the 2020 Annual Accounts
- Digi Communications N.V. (“Digi”) announces the Q1 2021 Financial results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the Q1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications N.V. announces an Amendment to the 2021 Financial Calendar
- Fastpayhotels Hits an Industry Milestone by Connecting 500 Hotels Per Day Through DerbySoft Technology
- 4 ways to build a more flexible supply chain
- Join the world's leading virtual CBD event for FREE
- DEEPENING STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UBC AND PIONEERING DECENTRALISED PLATFORM, MANYONE
- Mono Solutions recognizes Norwegian small business agency with best website 2021 award
- Mono Solutions and Xrysos Odigos unlock new opportunities for small businesses
- Behind the scenes of a 10,000-people online conference: creating a live-event atmosphere and leveraging cybersecurity software
- Largest Supply Chain for Face masks, FFP2, FFP3 and cloth masks
- TRANSMAR AND TRANSMETRICS SIGN DEAL FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART LOGISTICS COLLABORATION
- Amendment of Digi Communications N.V. Financial Calendar for 2021
- 4iG and Digi Communications NV’s Romanian subsidiary have entered into a term sheet with regards to a potential acquisition by 4iG of DIGI Group’s Hungarian operations
- “Building Healthy Relationships and Enhancing Gender Equality”: Young women from Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan come together
- Bring Ventures investit dans Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP et une solution de commerce électronique
- Bring Ventures investiert in Crossborderit (CBIT), eine DDP (geliefert verzollt) und E-Commerce Lösung
- Bring Ventures invests in Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP and ecommerce solution
- Lionspeed GP with Patrick Kolb and Lorenzo Rocco joins forces with CarCollection Motorsport in 2021
- Eurekos, ein klassenbester LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position im renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme verbessert
- Eurekos, en førsteklasses LMS-udbyder, har forstærket sin position på den prestigefyldte Fosway 9-Grid™ for læringssystemer
- Eurekos, ein erstklassiger LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position auf dem renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme weiter ausgebaut
- Digi Communications N.V. announces Share transaction made by an executive director of the Company with class B shares
GreenMantra Technologies Announces Exclusive Distribution Relationship with HARKE GROUP
- Digi Communications N.V.: Announces an Amendment to the Financial Calendar for 2021
- Ideanomics Invests $13M in Italian EV Motorcycle Company, Energica
- DigiSky and Asman Technology Announce Global Reseller Agreement
- Neowintech - O Marketplace Da Sua Próxima Solução Financeira
- Neowintech - Il Marketplace per la tua prossima soluzione finanziaria
- PIONEERING DECENTRALISED SECURE MESSAGING PLATFORM MANYONE ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON CENTRE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- Fraunhofer IGD develops automated robotic arm to scan cultural objects in 3D, now cooperating with Phase One
- Adapt Fast or Disappear – Choosing the Right Supplier
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- A URSAPHARM Arzneimittel e a CEBINA anunciam uma parceria com vista a reaproveitar o anti-histamínico azelastina para combater a COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel et CEBINA annoncent un partenariat pour reconvertir l'antihistaminique azélastine afin de lutter contre la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel y CEBINA anuncian una colaboración para readaptar el antihistamínico azelastine para combatir la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel and CEBINA announce partnership to repurpose the antihistamine azelastine to combat COVID-19
- ANIL UZUN Will Launch Bass Guitar Lessons Series on Youtube
- Henrik Stampe Appointed CEO for Mono Solutions
- Anna Mossberg leder Nordens största privata AI-lab i Sverige: "Utan AI riskerar svenska företag att förlora sin konkurrensfördel."
- What COVID-19 has taught us about manufacturing & the importance of a digital online marketplace
- Digi Communications N.V. announces: the Supreme Court of Hungary dismissed the Company’s appeal related to the 5G Tender procedure
- Customer Data Platform Industry to Reach $1.5 Billion in 2021: CDP Institute Report
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