- Unprecedented collapse in the number of people able to buy their first home as tougher regulation and greater capital requirements since 2007 take their toll
- Even with Help to Buy, first time buyer numbers in 2014 will fall 41% short of demand – pushing the total number of frustrated buyers beyond 2 million
- Regulation has limited the availability of loans and pushed up pricing – but sustaining the house building rise depends on support for first time buyers with limited deposits
- Permanent solution needed to help ordinary families access homeownership while protecting the safety of the financial system
- The much higher cost of high LTV borrowing means the average first time buyer currently needs £21,000 extra income for a 95% LTV loan than a 75% LTV loan – shutting many out of the market.
LONDON, 8-9-2014 — /EuropaWire/ — The decline of high loan to value (LTV) mortgage lending in the UK has led to a 1.8m shortfall in the number of first time buyers since 2007, according to a new report from Genworth, the global mortgage insurer.
The report highlights how tougher regulation and higher capital requirements for lenders have accelerated the fall in homeownership and dramatically reduced the number of people – especially younger households – who are able to buy their first home.
Using government and industry data, Genworth’s analysis of first time buyer numbers compared with expected demand shows people entered owner-occupation at a consistent rate from 1985 to 2006, with 10.26m buying their first homes, only slightly under the expected 10.29m based on population trends.
But since 2007, an unprecedented collapse has taken place, creating a large and persistent deficit in first time buyer numbers. The combined effect over seven years from 2007 to 2013 is a shortfall of 1.8m first time buyers against expected demand (see chart 1). Put simply, 1.8m of the UK population who would have been expected to buy their first home since 2007 have not done so.
Even with the government’s Help to Buy schemes in place, figures for the first six months of 2014 indicate there will be 296,200 first time buyers this year when demographic trends suggest there should be 500,000 to satisfy demand. This annual deficit of 41% or 203,800 will push total frustrated demand from the previous 1.8m to beyond 2 million.
Chart 1: rise and fall of first time buyer numbers relative to demand – cumulative frustrated demand reached 1.8m by 2013
Long term plan needed to support first time buyers while protecting the financial system
As a result, the report warns that the UK is facing a large and rapidly growing crisis in access to homeownership alongside the crisis of inadequate house building.
It highlights the impact of the high LTV lending drought on the house building collapse during the recession – high LTV borrowers made up 40% of new build sales before the financial crisis – and examines the policy response to correct the fault through the dual Help to Buy schemes, which have accounted for virtually all the growth in new housing output over the last year.
Genworth argues these temporary government interventions need to be replaced with a permanent, market driven mechanism that supports access to homeownership for ordinary families while protecting the safety of the financial system.
Without a permanent long term replacement for Help to Buy to bolster high LTV lending, new building rates could quickly fall back or properties could get to market and not find buyers among the key frustrated demographic.
A system of mortgage insurance – which already exists in varied forms in Canada, Australia, the U.S., Hong Kong and the Netherlands – would provide the UK with the missing piece of its regulatory jigsaw: a comprehensive framework to mitigate the risk of high LTV lending by transferring it from a mortgage lender to an insurance provider designed to bear the risk.
Mortgage insurance for high LTV loans – backed by capital relief for lenders –would ensure prudently underwritten mortgages can be available in the quantity and at the price required to support first time buyer aspirations in the UK.
As a regulatory tool, it would also reconcile the twin objectives of keeping the financial system safe and keeping homeownership open as an option for the majority, without calling on taxpayer funds to prop up the first time buyer market.
Simon Crone, vice president for mortgage insurance (Europe) at Genworth, comments:
“The scale of frustrated demand is growing larger by the day. Interventions so far have barely begun to make any inroads into a problem that threatens to permanently undermine UK homeownership, with younger households bearing the brunt of the impact.
The UK is facing a dual crisis of first time buyer lending alongside low house building. There is plenty of scope to improve on Help to Buy, which remains a temporary fix to a problem currently hardwired into the market. But we must avoid its removal until there is a long term solution in place. Delaying these vital decisions will only exacerbate the issue.
Help to Buy must become a precursor to a permanent system where mortgage insurance for high LTV loans – backed by capital relief – plays an ongoing role in helping first time buyers access the market, ensuring a sustainable rise in house building and protecting the safety of lenders and the financial system.”
Regulation has pushed the price of high LTV loans out of reach for many buyers
Genworth’s report shows that high LTV lending was crucial to advancing and sustaining UK homeownership from the 1930s onwards, and its subsequent decline has been the key factor in falling rates of owner-occupation with 25-34 year olds hit hardest.
Tougher regulation since 2008/9 has reinforced a shift of focus away from first time buyers in the mortgage market, contributing to a dramatic reduction in high LTV mortgages and pushing up their cost for lenders and borrowers.
Comparing the average cost of a two-year fixed mortgage at 75% and 95% LTV in July 2014, borrowers effectively paid a rate of 15.8% on the balance between 75% and 95% compared to 2.5% up to 75% LTV.
It means on an average first time buyer home of £147,000, a 75% LTV borrower would pay £496 a month while a 95% LTV borrower would pay £843. Assuming both were assessed as being able to pay up to 30% of their net income on their mortgage, the 75% LTV borrower would need a gross salary of £24,800 while the 95% LTV borrower would need £45,800, hugely restricting the number who can take out a high LTV mortgage.
Simon Crone, vice president for mortgage insurance (Europe) at Genworth, continues:
“The insurance sector has the capacity and willingness to replace much of the government’s exposure under Help to Buy and support a transition to a permanent scheme that helps rescue owner-occupation from its current decline.
We urge government and regulators to work with private insurers to address the two most pressing priorities in the housing market: boosting construction of new homes and supporting first time buyer access at a price they can afford.
Both objectives depend on the availability of high LTV mortgages, and a solution that delivers these outcomes while protecting financial stability is the missing piece of the UK’s regulatory jigsaw.”
Media contacts
For more information, please contact:
Andy Lane,The Wriglesworth Consultancy, a.lane@wriglesworth.com, 0207 427 1400
Suzy Awford, Public Relations for Genworth Financial, suzy.awford@genworth.com, 0208 380 2080/07971 142 233
Rob Griffiths, Public Relations for Genworth Financial, rob@whitedragoncomms.co.uk, 07983 641 566
About the Genworth report
Genworth’s report – ‘After Help to Buy: reconciling a healthy mortgage market and safe lending’ – was authored by Rob Thomas, Director of Research at Wriglesworth Research and formerly a Bank of England economist, a high profile analyst at the investment bank UBS and senior policy adviser to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Rob was also the project originator and manager at the European Mortgage Finance Agency project and created the blueprint for the government’s NewBuy mortgage scheme.
About Genworth Mortgage Insurance in the UK
Genworth focuses on mortgage insurance and lifestyle protection in the UK and Europe, working with building societies, banks and other financial institutions. Since 1993, Genworth has been offering flexible mortgage insurance solutions to suit different lender requirements, whether that is on a loan-by-loan basis or at a portfolio level.
Our protection to lenders makes high loan-to-value mortgage loans (where the borrower does not have a large deposit) available to good credit-quality borrowers. Genworth is regulated by the PRA and FCA, and has unmatched expertise and capacity including a unique arrangement with highly rated reinsurers.
About Genworth Financial
Genworth Financial, Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is a leading Fortune 500 insurance holding company committed to helping families become more financially secure, self-reliant and prepared for the future. Genworth has leadership positions in long term care insurance and mortgage insurance and competitive offerings in life insurance and fixed annuities that assist consumers in solving their insurance, retirement and home ownership needs.
Genworth operates through three divisions: U.S. Life Insurance, which includes life insurance, long term care insurance and fixed annuities; Global Mortgage Insurance, containing U.S. Mortgage Insurance and International Mortgage Insurance segments; and the Corporate and Other division, which includes the International Protection and Runoff segments. Products and services are offered through financial intermediaries, advisors, independent distributors and sales specialists. Genworth, headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, traces its roots back to 1871 and became a public company in 2004. For more information, visit genworth.com. From time to time, Genworth releases important information via postings on its corporate website. Accordingly, investors and other interested parties are encouraged to enroll to receive automatic email alerts and Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds regarding new postings. Enrollment information is found under the “Investors” section of genworth.com. From time to time, Genworth’s publicly traded subsidiaries, Genworth MI Canada Inc. (TSX:MIC) and Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited (ASX:GMA), separately release financial and other information about their operations. This information can be found at http://www.genworth.com.au and http://genworth.ca.
Read the full After Help to Buy report here.
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- Digi Communications N.V. announces the exercise of stock options by the Executive Director of the Company pursuant to the decision of the Company’s general meeting of shareholders dated 30 April 2020 and in accordance with the stock option plan approved at the level of the Company in 2017
- New research unlocks long tail growth opportunity for the tech industry
- Digi Communications NV announces the availability of the instructions on the 2020 share dividend payment
- Digi Communications NV announces that conditional stock options were granted to several Directors of the Company based on the approval of the general meeting of shareholders from 18 May 2021
- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the Company’s General Shareholders Meeting resolutions adopted on 18 May 2021 approving, amongst others, the 2020 Annual Accounts
- Digi Communications N.V. (“Digi”) announces the Q1 2021 Financial results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the Q1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications N.V. announces an Amendment to the 2021 Financial Calendar
- Fastpayhotels Hits an Industry Milestone by Connecting 500 Hotels Per Day Through DerbySoft Technology
- 4 ways to build a more flexible supply chain
- Join the world's leading virtual CBD event for FREE
- DEEPENING STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UBC AND PIONEERING DECENTRALISED PLATFORM, MANYONE
- Mono Solutions recognizes Norwegian small business agency with best website 2021 award
- Mono Solutions and Xrysos Odigos unlock new opportunities for small businesses
- Behind the scenes of a 10,000-people online conference: creating a live-event atmosphere and leveraging cybersecurity software
- Largest Supply Chain for Face masks, FFP2, FFP3 and cloth masks
- TRANSMAR AND TRANSMETRICS SIGN DEAL FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART LOGISTICS COLLABORATION
- Amendment of Digi Communications N.V. Financial Calendar for 2021
- 4iG and Digi Communications NV’s Romanian subsidiary have entered into a term sheet with regards to a potential acquisition by 4iG of DIGI Group’s Hungarian operations
- “Building Healthy Relationships and Enhancing Gender Equality”: Young women from Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan come together
- Bring Ventures investit dans Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP et une solution de commerce électronique
- Bring Ventures investiert in Crossborderit (CBIT), eine DDP (geliefert verzollt) und E-Commerce Lösung
- Bring Ventures invests in Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP and ecommerce solution
- Lionspeed GP with Patrick Kolb and Lorenzo Rocco joins forces with CarCollection Motorsport in 2021
- Eurekos, ein klassenbester LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position im renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme verbessert
- Eurekos, en førsteklasses LMS-udbyder, har forstærket sin position på den prestigefyldte Fosway 9-Grid™ for læringssystemer
- Eurekos, ein erstklassiger LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position auf dem renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme weiter ausgebaut
- Digi Communications N.V. announces Share transaction made by an executive director of the Company with class B shares
GreenMantra Technologies Announces Exclusive Distribution Relationship with HARKE GROUP
- Digi Communications N.V.: Announces an Amendment to the Financial Calendar for 2021
- Ideanomics Invests $13M in Italian EV Motorcycle Company, Energica
- DigiSky and Asman Technology Announce Global Reseller Agreement
- Neowintech - O Marketplace Da Sua Próxima Solução Financeira
- Neowintech - Il Marketplace per la tua prossima soluzione finanziaria
- PIONEERING DECENTRALISED SECURE MESSAGING PLATFORM MANYONE ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON CENTRE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- Fraunhofer IGD develops automated robotic arm to scan cultural objects in 3D, now cooperating with Phase One
- Adapt Fast or Disappear – Choosing the Right Supplier
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- A URSAPHARM Arzneimittel e a CEBINA anunciam uma parceria com vista a reaproveitar o anti-histamínico azelastina para combater a COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel et CEBINA annoncent un partenariat pour reconvertir l'antihistaminique azélastine afin de lutter contre la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel y CEBINA anuncian una colaboración para readaptar el antihistamínico azelastine para combatir la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel and CEBINA announce partnership to repurpose the antihistamine azelastine to combat COVID-19
- ANIL UZUN Will Launch Bass Guitar Lessons Series on Youtube
- Henrik Stampe Appointed CEO for Mono Solutions
- Anna Mossberg leder Nordens största privata AI-lab i Sverige: "Utan AI riskerar svenska företag att förlora sin konkurrensfördel."
- What COVID-19 has taught us about manufacturing & the importance of a digital online marketplace
- Digi Communications N.V. announces: the Supreme Court of Hungary dismissed the Company’s appeal related to the 5G Tender procedure
- Customer Data Platform Industry to Reach $1.5 Billion in 2021: CDP Institute Report
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