Shell’s latest scenarios explore energy and climate outcomes after Ukraine invasion

Shell’s latest scenarios explore energy and climate outcomes after Ukraine invasion

(IN BRIEF) Shell has released two new scenarios, Archipelagos and Sky 2050, which explore possible energy and climate outcomes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Archipelagos shows how national interest remains a key priority, with renewables seen as a way to improve energy security, and net-zero emissions within sight by 2100 but the world has failed to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. In contrast, Sky 2050 shows a world that rapidly switches to cleaner energy with competition driving change and the world reaching net-zero emissions in 2050, while warming is restricted to below 1.5°C by 2100. Both scenarios aim to stretch thinking and are not predictions or expressions of Shell’s business plan.

(PRESS RELEASE) LONDON, 22-Mar-2023 — /EuropaWire/ — Shell plc has published its latest scenarios: the Energy Security Scenarios. The two new scenarios explore how the world could evolve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, they look into the possible energy and climate outcomes that could result from a world that has security as its dominant concern.

Shell Scenarios are not predictions or expectations of what will happen, or what will probably happen. They are not expressions of Shell’s strategy, and they are not Shell’s business plan; they are one of the many inputs used by Shell to stretch thinking whilst making decisions.

The first scenario, called Archipelagos, follows how today’s pressures could play out to the end of the century. National interest remains key and renewables are mainly seen as a way to improve energy security. By 2100, net-zero emissions is within sight, but the world has failed to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. This scenario is “exploratory”: it seeks to plot a course from where the world stood in 2022.

The second scenario, called Sky 2050, shows just how fast the world must move to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. Global climate security becomes the primary concern. Nations race to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape emerges for technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity. Competition drives rapid change and the world reaches net-zero emissions in 2050. This scenario is “normative” and extremely challenging: it set goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 and warming restricted to below 1.5°C by 2100, and then worked back to the realities of 2022 to explore how these end points could be reached.

Key points from the Energy Security Scenarios include:

• Fossil fuels lose market share. The energy system is decarbonising, the questions is: how fast?
• There is no realistic path to an instant and steep drop in emissions.
• The average temperature rise is highly likely to breach 1.5°C.
• The future of energy is electricity, although hydrogen and bioenergy have significant roles to play.
• Bringing the temperature rise back down below 1.5°C will require large-scale carbon removal and storage.

Scenarios are informed by data, constructed using models and contain insights from leading experts in the relevant fields. Ultimately, for all readers, scenarios are intended as an aid to making better decisions. They stretch minds, broaden horizons and explore assumptions.

Explore the Energy Security Scenarios, including a summary, at www.shell.com/scenarios to find out more.

Notes to editors

• The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur.
• Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future.

Cautionary note

The Energy Security Scenarios

WARNING – UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: Shell’s scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell’s scenarios, including the scenarios contained in this publication, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goal to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control, only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur. Our assumptions for the Sky 2050 are based on what we believe are technically possible as of today and not necessarily plausible. Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future. Of course, there is a range of possible paths in detail that society could take to achieve this goal. Although achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement and the future depicted in Sky 2050 while maintaining a growing global economy will be extremely challenging, today there is still a technically possible pathway to accomplish it. However, we believe the window for success is quickly closing.

The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this publication “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this publication refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. “Joint ventures” and “joint operations” are collectively referred to as “joint arrangements”. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This publication contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, “milestones”, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this publication, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing [measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this publication are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov

). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this publication and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this publication, March 21, 2023. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this publication.

Media Contact:

Jonathan French
Head of Corporate Media Relations
Tel: +44 20 7934 5550

SOURCE: Shell