DNV Forecasts Major Expansion of Clean Hydrogen as Energy Security and Chinese Investment Drive Global Growth

DNV Forecasts Major Expansion of Clean Hydrogen as Energy Security and Chinese Investment Drive Global Growth

(IN BRIEF) DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook Hydrogen to 2060 forecasts a major expansion in the global clean hydrogen industry, with production expected to increase 100-fold and cumulative investments reaching USD 3.2 trillion by 2060. The report identifies China as the dominant future player, accounting for 35% of new hydrogen production and use, supported by its renewable energy capacity and strong electrolyser manufacturing base. Clean hydrogen demand is expected to grow most rapidly in hard-to-electrify sectors such as steelmaking, aviation and maritime transport. However, DNV has revised its long-term hydrogen forecast downward by 35% since 2022 due to limited policy support and advances in competing electrification technologies. The report also highlights energy security as an increasingly important driver of hydrogen investment, while warning that stronger safety standards, certification systems and regulatory frameworks will be necessary to support industrial-scale deployment and investor confidence.

(PRESS RELEASE) HØVIK, 12-May-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — DNV expects the global hydrogen sector to expand significantly over the coming decades, with clean hydrogen production projected to increase by 100 times compared with current levels, according to the company’s latest Energy Transition Outlook Hydrogen to 2060 report. The report predicts that overall hydrogen volumes will rise by 170% through 2060, supported by cumulative global investments estimated at USD 3.2 trillion.

DNV identifies China as the dominant force behind the industry’s future growth, forecasting that the country will account for 35% of all new hydrogen production and consumption during the outlook period. The report highlights China’s rapidly expanding renewable energy capacity, combined with its strong manufacturing base for electrolysers, as key factors positioning the country at the centre of the global hydrogen economy.

The study suggests that clean hydrogen demand will increasingly be driven by sectors that are difficult to decarbonize through direct electrification alone. By 2060, steel production is expected to represent 18% of total clean hydrogen use, matching aviation at 18%, while maritime industries are forecast to account for 15%. Traditional hydrogen-consuming sectors such as fertilizer production and methanol manufacturing are also expected to significantly decarbonize their supply chains, with each sector projected to represent approximately 13% of clean hydrogen demand.

Despite the long-term growth outlook, DNV notes that the hydrogen industry has faced substantial challenges in recent years. Compared with the company’s previous hydrogen forecast published in 2022, the new mid-century outlook has been revised downward by 35%. DNV attributes the adjustment largely to insufficient policy support, which has slowed the conversion of early industry ambitions into large-scale commercial projects. Continued advances in electrification technologies have also reduced hydrogen’s expected role in certain sectors previously considered likely adopters.

Ditlev Engel said the hydrogen industry remains positioned for growth but described its current trajectory as fragile. He noted that hydrogen plays an important role in addressing some of the most difficult aspects of global decarbonisation while also contributing to energy security by reducing fossil fuel dependency in critical sectors. Engel urged policymakers to evaluate recent technological progress carefully and take more decisive action to support industry development.

The report highlights energy security as an increasingly important factor shaping hydrogen investment and policy decisions. Governments in countries heavily dependent on imported energy are expected to accelerate hydrogen strategies as they seek to reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and strengthen industrial resilience. DNV believes current geopolitical instability is already speeding up investment decisions, with renewable electrolysis-based hydrogen capacity forecast to increase by 10 million tonnes annually by 2030, in addition to the 1.5 million tonnes installed in 2025.

DNV also anticipates that instability in the Middle East may contribute to higher use of coal-based hydrogen for ammonia and fertilizer production in the medium term as countries prioritize food security and agricultural supply stability.

The report forecasts that Europe and China together will account for half of all new renewable electrolysis capacity installed by 2030. China alone currently holds around 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity, giving it a major advantage in scaling renewable hydrogen production through integration with large-scale solar and wind generation.

In addition to policy and investment challenges, DNV warns that the industry must address growing concerns surrounding safety, verification and emissions transparency. The company says lessons learned from pilot projects are helping shape industrial-scale hydrogen systems, but cautions that large-scale deployment cannot simply replicate smaller projects without additional safety and operational considerations.

Magnus Killingland said future industry progress will depend on refining regulations, implementing clearer legislation and strengthening verification and certification systems for hydrogen technologies and emissions reductions. According to Killingland, improved standardisation and more comprehensive approaches to safety and certification will be essential for building trust and attracting large-scale investment into renewable and low-carbon hydrogen infrastructure.

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SOURCE: DNV