Study finds Greenland Ice Sheet, AMOC, Amazon rainforest, and South American monsoon nearing tipping points

Exceeding tipping points could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes with serious global consequences. iStockphoto.com / Cheryl Ramalho

(IN BRIEF) A new study published in Nature Geoscience warns that four major components of the Earth’s climate system—the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest, and the South American monsoon—are showing signs of destabilization. Using observational data and a mathematical framework to assess system recovery, researchers found evidence that these elements are losing stability and may be approaching tipping points that could trigger abrupt, irreversible changes. Scientists warn that the interconnectedness of these systems could amplify risks and mask early signals, making prediction more difficult. They stress that each additional fraction of a degree of global warming increases the danger and urge both rapid greenhouse gas reductions and the establishment of a global monitoring system to track the health of critical climate components.

(PRESS RELEASE) MUNICH, 1-Oct-2025 — /EuropaWire/ — An international team of scientists has found evidence that four of the most critical interconnected elements of the Earth’s climate system are showing signs of destabilization. The study, published in Nature Geoscience, highlights the growing risks facing the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest, and the South American monsoon system.

Drawing on observational data, the researchers identified clear warning signals that these systems may be approaching dangerous tipping points. Lead author Prof. Niklas Boers from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research explained: “We now have convincing observational evidence that several interconnected parts of the Earth system are destabilizing. This means that these systems may be approaching critical thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes with severe consequences.”

Prof. Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter added that the greatest risk lies in the interconnected nature of these systems: “They interact via the oceans and the atmosphere, which can amplify destabilization. In the worst case, these interactions could intensify negative consequences for the global climate system and obscure genuine warning signals, making tipping points harder to predict.”

Unlike earlier research that focused on single climate components, this study adopted a broader view, analyzing how multiple systems interact as part of one global network. Co-author Dr. Teng Liu from TUM noted: “This new research zooms out to analyze them together as part of a larger, interconnected system.”

The scientists applied a novel mathematical method that assesses how systems recover from disturbances, using empirical data to detect early-warning signals. Their analysis revealed ongoing stability loss across all four components.

The exact thresholds for these tipping points remain uncertain, but the researchers stress that risk increases with every fraction of a degree of warming. “With every tenth of a degree of additional warming, the likelihood of crossing a tipping point grows. That alone should be a powerful argument for immediate and decisive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions,” said Prof. Boers.

The study also calls for the development of a global monitoring system to track the stability of major Earth system components. Such a system, supported by satellite observations of vegetation and ice melt, would provide the critical data needed to assess changes and improve early warning capacity.

By offering a methodological framework for monitoring the stability of climate systems, the research underscores both the urgency of global emissions reduction and the importance of coordinated observation. The findings point to an increasingly fragile climate system and highlight the need for rapid, collaborative action to avoid crossing dangerous thresholds.

Publications

Boers, Liu, Bathiany, Ben-Yami, Blaschke, Bochow, Boulton, Lenton, Andreas Morr, Nian, Rypdal, Smith: Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements, Nature Geoscience (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0

Further information and links

• Niklas Boers is Professor of Earth System Modeling at the TUM School of Engineering and Design
• He also conducts research at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
• Researchers from institutions in Germany, the UK, China, and Norway were involved in the project

SOURCE: Technical University of Munich