Allianz Trade Study Reveals Gap Between Perceived and Actual Inflation, with Germany Experiencing Significant Disparity

Allianz Trade Study Reveals Gap Between Perceived and Actual Inflation, with Germany Experiencing Significant Disparity

(IN BRIEF) Allianz Trade has conducted a study revealing a significant gap between perceived and actual inflation rates, with Germany experiencing the widest disparity. The study shows that perceived inflation in the eurozone is nearly three times higher than the actual rate, with Germany’s perceived inflation surpassing 18%. Various factors contribute to this discrepancy, including consumers’ focus on price changes for everyday items. In addition, the study highlights divergent inflation rates across Europe, with Austria and Germany experiencing higher rates compared to Switzerland, which benefits from its strong currency and self-sufficiency. Understanding these gaps is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and consumers in making informed decisions.

(PRESS RELEASE) MUNICH, 21-Jun-2023 — /EuropaWire/ —  Allianz Group (ETR: ALV), one of the leading integrated financial services providers worldwide, announces that Allianz Trade, the world’s leading credit insurer, has conducted a study highlighting the divergence between perceived and actual inflation rates, with Germany exhibiting a particularly wide gap. The analysis reveals that perceived inflation in the eurozone is nearly three times higher than the actual inflation rate, with recent figures reaching approximately 17%, which is 9 percentage points higher than the real inflation rate for the quarter. In Germany, the perceived inflation rate is even higher at more than 18%, surpassing the actual rate by 11 percentage points. This discrepancy between perceived and actual inflation has important implications for consumer behavior, the economy, businesses, and interest rate policies.

The study identifies several factors contributing to the gap between perceived and actual inflation. Consumers tend to pay closer attention to price changes in everyday items such as food, beverages, and fuel. When prices for these goods rise above average, consumers perceive inflation to be much higher. Additionally, psychological factors, demographic and regional differences, and individual consumer behavior all contribute to the disparity between perceived and actual inflation rates.

Furthermore, the study reveals significant variations in inflation rates across Europe. The average inflation rate in the European Union stands at over 8%, with the Eurozone experiencing an inflation rate of 6.1% in May compared to the previous year. However, inflation rates differ significantly from country to country, ranging from 2.8% in Greece to 13.0% in Poland and 21.5% in Hungary.

Jasmin Groeschl, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade, explains, “Factors such as geographical proximity to Russia, energy and food import dependency, government intervention, and currency strength play key roles in determining inflation rates.”

In Germany, all these factors are at play. The country’s high dependence on energy imports from Russia has contributed to a significant rise in energy prices. The German government has implemented measures such as price brakes on electricity and gas to counteract this trend. Furthermore, the weakened euro against the dollar in the Eurozone has led to increased inflation, as commodities traded in dollars, such as oil and gas, have become more expensive. However, Germany has benefited from a stronger euro due to interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, leading to a decline in producer and wholesale prices, which will gradually dampen inflation.

Austria, on the other hand, exhibits higher inflation rates compared to its German neighbors. This difference can be attributed in part to the composition of the basket of goods, with Austria’s strong tourism sector contributing to a significant price increase. Government support measures also play a role, as fuel discounts and ticket subsidies in Germany have had a dampening effect on inflation, whereas Austria experienced a sharp price increase following the end of a longer VAT reduction period.

Switzerland stands as an exception, benefiting from the strength of the Swiss franc, which reduces inflation via lower import prices. Additionally, the country’s self-sufficiency in hydroelectric and nuclear power, coupled with limited food imports and regulated world market food prices, contributes to a more stable pricing environment.

The Allianz Trade study sheds light on the divergent inflation trends and the significant impact of perceived inflation on consumer behavior and economic decision-making. Understanding the factors driving these disparities is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and consumers alike.

About Allianz
The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers with more than 122 million* private and corporate customers in more than 70 countries. Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit insurance and global business insurance. Allianz is one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 717 billion euros** on behalf of its insurance customers. Furthermore, our asset managers PIMCO and Allianz Global Investors manage about 1.7 trillion euros** of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic integration of ecological and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, we are among the leaders in the insurance industry in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In 2022, over 159,000 employees achieved total revenues of 152.7 billion euros and an operating profit of 14.2 billion euros for the group

Media contacts:

Antje Wolters
Euler Hermes Germany
+49 40 88 34 10 33

SOURCE: ALLIANZ TRADE