ABN AMRO Forecasts Continued House Price Growth in the Netherlands Through 2027

ABN AMRO Forecasts Continued House Price Growth in the Netherlands Through 2027

(IN BRIEF) ABN AMRO expects Dutch house prices to keep rising in 2026 and 2027, albeit at a slower pace than the strong growth seen in 2025. While higher mortgage rates and reduced investor activity are set to weigh on transaction volumes, rising incomes and a persistent housing shortage are likely to continue supporting prices.

(PRESS RELEASE) AMSTERDAM, 12-Jan-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — The Dutch housing market demonstrated unexpected resilience in 2025, with house prices rising by 8.6 percent year-on-year, broadly matching the strong growth seen in 2024. According to ABN AMRO’s latest housing market outlook, published today, price growth is expected to continue in the coming years, although at a significantly slower pace. The bank forecasts house prices to increase by around 3 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.

This moderation reflects a combination of modest economic growth, easing inflation and slightly higher mortgage rates. Despite these factors, household incomes in the Netherlands are expected to keep rising, supporting continued demand for housing. In addition, the persistent shortage of homes is expected to outweigh the dampening effect of higher borrowing costs, maintaining upward pressure on prices over the medium term.

While prices are set to keep rising, transaction volumes are expected to move in the opposite direction. In 2025, the number of housing transactions surged to an estimated 239,000, driven largely by the sale of rental properties by investors. This represents a 16 percent increase compared with 2024 and marks the highest annual transaction level in at least a decade. ABN AMRO expects this exceptional activity to fade, as the wave of investor sales gradually subsides.

Looking ahead, the bank forecasts a slight decline in housing transactions in both 2026 and 2027, with volumes falling by 1 percent and 4 percent respectively. The expected slowdown is linked not only to reduced investor activity, but also to ongoing shortages in new housing construction, which continue to limit the number of properties available on the market.

Policy developments could influence the market over time, but ABN AMRO does not expect immediate effects. Housing remains a central topic in coalition talks, with political attention focused on boosting supply. Discussions include a potential gradual reduction of mortgage interest tax relief, paired with measures to offset income effects for homeowners. However, the complexity of these proposals means implementation is likely to take time, and the bank does not expect such changes to exert downward pressure on house prices in the near term.

At the European level, ABN AMRO points to the Affordable Housing Plan presented by the European Commission in December 2025. The initiative aims to increase housing supply by easing regulations, harmonising rules across member states and expanding financing options. For the Netherlands, this could eventually lead to greater support for the mid-range rental sector, potentially through an expanded role for housing associations.

Overall, ABN AMRO concludes that income growth and structural housing shortages will continue to underpin the Dutch housing market in the coming years, even as transaction volumes ease and price growth becomes more moderate.

Media Contact:

Hans Sjouke Koopal
Sr Press Officer Private Banking, Personal & BB
hans.sjouke.koopal@nl.abnamro.com
+31 (0)20 3009154

SOURCE: ABN AMRO