Wolters Kluwer February 2025 Economic Survey Highlights Fed Rate Expectations and Tariff Impacts on Inflation

Wolters Kluwer February 2025 Economic Survey Highlights Fed Rate Expectations and Tariff Impacts on Inflation

(IN BRIEF) Wolters Kluwer’s February 2025 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey shows that most economists do not expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with only 10% predicting it. A majority, 80%, foresee tariff hikes driving U.S. inflation higher. Economists also predict a 2.5% rise in PCE inflation in the current quarter, exceeding the Fed’s target. Additionally, the survey reveals that most panelists anticipate AI will eventually disrupt the labor market, but the effects will not be felt until 3-5 years from now. The survey offers monthly forecasts on economic indicators like GDP, inflation, and unemployment.

(PRESS RELEASE) ALPHEN AAN DEN RIJN, 20-Feb-2025 — /EuropaWire/ — Wolters Kluwer has released the February 2025 edition of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, revealing a cautious outlook among leading economists for upcoming U.S. monetary policy. With the Federal Reserve’s March meeting approaching, only 10% of the 47 economists on the panel expect a rate cut. In contrast, the majority, 80%, foresee that the anticipated tariff hikes will play a significant role in driving U.S. inflation higher.

Since 1976, the Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey has been regarded as a premier source of economic forecasting, drawing insights from a distinguished group of economists employed by some of the largest corporations in the U.S., including major manufacturers, banks, and insurance companies.

Key findings from the February survey include:

• A mere 15% of economists expect the next Fed rate cut to happen in May, with a larger portion (50%) predicting that a cut will occur in June. Meanwhile, 23% believe a reduction in rates won’t materialize until later in the year.
• The consensus forecast now places a 48% probability on a meaningful reacceleration of inflation in the next six months.
• Economists predict that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in the current quarter, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, and is expected to maintain this elevated pace through the first quarter of 2026.
• Nearly all economists in the panel (46 out of 47) agree that artificial intelligence will disrupt the labor market in the future, shifting labor demand in certain sectors. However, the majority (55%) anticipate that these effects will not be felt until 3-5 years down the road.

The monthly Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides detailed forecasts on a variety of key economic variables such as GDP, the Consumer Price Index, and unemployment, along with insights into the anticipated direction of these indicators from the panel of expert economists.

Media Contact:

Frank Ready
Senior Specialist, External Communications, Legal & Regulatory
frank.ready@wolterskluwer.com
+1 (717) 205-3647

SOURCE: Wolters Kluwer