University of York Report Warns UK Food System Remains Vulnerable to Future Crises

Researchers say it is critical to improving national food resilience.

(IN BRIEF) A new study led by researchers from the University of York and Anglia Ruskin University warns that the UK food system remains dangerously vulnerable to shocks such as war, extreme weather and cyber-attacks, with recent disruptions to retailers and global supply chains highlighting weaknesses in just-in-time networks, and modelling by 39 experts showing how price spikes and shortages could disproportionately harm low-income households, increase food fraud, and in extreme cases fuel social unrest, while recommending stronger energy security, more diverse supply chains and resilient diets, alongside a systems-thinking map now being used by policymakers to better anticipate cascading risks and strengthen national food resilience.

(PRESS RELEASE) YORK, 4-Feb-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — University of York researchers have published a new report examining how the UK could respond to major disruptions to food supplies, and what steps could be taken now to prevent such shocks from escalating into a national crisis.

The study brings together insights from 39 food system experts across the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University and other institutions, mapping how disturbances such as sudden price rises, supply shortages, extreme weather, or cyber-attacks could place mounting pressure on an already fragile food system. The researchers warn that without proactive intervention, such shocks could amplify existing vulnerabilities, leading to instability and potentially even social unrest.

The findings come at a time when recent global and domestic events have exposed weaknesses in the UK’s highly interdependent, just-in-time food networks. Cyber incidents affecting major retailers such as M&S and Co-op, alongside the global economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, have highlighted how quickly supply chains can be disrupted and how exposed the UK remains to external shocks.

Published in the journal Sustainability, the report argues that structural weaknesses in the food system are leaving the country dangerously vulnerable. Strengthening national food resilience, the authors say, must therefore become a strategic priority.

The research outlines how a major international conflict could trigger trade interruptions, rising energy costs, agricultural disruption, and sharp increases in food prices. These impacts would be felt most acutely by low-income households, potentially worsening food insecurity and limiting access to nutritious diets.

The report also warns that such pressures could generate wider societal consequences, including increased food fraud, growth in black-market activity, and a rise in food-borne illnesses. In the most extreme scenarios, declining trust in government and business could contribute to civil unrest.

To mitigate these risks, the researchers recommend several key measures, including strengthening UK energy security, diversifying food supply chains, and encouraging more resilient and varied dietary patterns.

Beyond geopolitical conflict, the study also considers how other threats — such as cyber-attacks or extreme weather events — could independently or jointly trigger similar cascading crises across the food system.

Drawing on interviews with more than 30 experts from academia, government and industry, the team identified critical systemic weaknesses and potential crisis triggers, alongside interventions that could help prevent them. The study also presents a detailed, interconnected map of the UK food system based on systems-thinking principles — a tool already being used by policymakers to inform more resilient decision-making.

Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, said that food system stability should be treated as a matter of national security. She emphasised that while future shocks cannot be entirely avoided, stronger resilience measures could prevent minor disruptions from turning into major crises.

She also highlighted the need for more coordinated action across government, industry and civil society, arguing that a clearer understanding of how the food system behaves under stress is essential for preventing worst-case outcomes.

Dominic Watters, a lived-experience researcher and contributor to the study, stressed that food crises are not only about shortages but also about social justice. He argued that stigma and marginalisation of food-insecure communities are already undermining social cohesion, and that meaningful resilience planning must involve co-design with those most affected.

Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, warned that policymakers often underestimate the risk of severe food disruptions. He called for long-term, cross-departmental collaboration and a whole-systems approach to food policy.

The study was funded by an APEX Award from the British Academy, the Royal Academy of Engineering and the Royal Society.

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SOURCE: University of York