Swiss SMEs expect to increase exports further throughout 2022 – Credit Suisse and Switzerland Global Enterprise survey

Swiss SMEs expect to increase exports further throughout 2022 – Credit Suisse and Switzerland Global Enterprise survey

(PRESS RELEASE) ZÜRICH, 27-Jan-2022 — /EuropaWire/ — Credit Suisse, a global wealth manager, investment bank and financial services firm, and Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE), the official Swiss body responsible for export and investment promotion, have announced the release of their joint study on Swiss SMEs export outlook for the first half of 2022. According to the findings of the study the export sentiment of Swiss SMEs continues to be very buoyant. Very optimistic are also the Credit Suisse Export Barometer and the Swiss Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing while growth is being held back due to supply shortages and other consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

With the export sentiment of Swiss SMEs having already regained the heights recorded in the boom year of 2018, it has now risen once again: Two-thirds of all the companies surveyed by Switzerland Global Enterprise are expecting to be able to increase exports further by the middle of 2022. The key destination markets remain Switzerland’s immediate neighbors, particularly Germany, along with the US and China. However, it is striking that China has lost some of its appeal as a potential new export destination, slipping from first place all the way back to mid-pack. By contrast, a desire to export to the Gulf region has emerged as a clear trend: 14% of companies now want to sell their goods to Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, while 11% are targeting the United Arab Emirates and 6% Saudi Arabia.

The Credit Suisse Export Barometer, which reflects foreign demand for Swiss products, also remains close to the record levels posted in 2018 and 2010, and therefore comfortably in the growth zone. A similar picture is painted by the Swiss Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which has remained well above the growth threshold for almost a year and a half, and has also for the time being halted the downward trend evident since the peak recorded in July 2021.

According to the S-GE survey, the main challenge over the coming months will be the pandemic and its direct consequences – such as disruptions to value creation chains, a lack of planning certainty, travel restrictions, and material procurement difficulties.
This is confirmed by the Swiss Purchasing Managers Index survey, which shows that two-thirds of companies are expecting production outages over the coming six months due to problems on the procurement side. Credit Suisse economists are not anticipating any meaningful improvement in the situation until the middle of this year. In the area of electronics – and specifically semiconductors (chips) – the situation is likely to remain challenging even into 2023.

Andreas Gerber, Head of Corporate Clients Switzerland at Credit Suisse, commented as follows: “Swiss SMEs are currently continuing to benefit from positive sentiment in the industrial markets of the key Swiss export destinations. Although global purchasing managers indices have declined slightly in recent months, they remain comfortably in growth territory in Europe and the US, which points to strong demand for Swiss products. A key factor going forward will be how quickly global production and transport capacities can be ramped up again following the pandemic in order to eliminate the current supply bottlenecks.”

Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE), added: “It is impressive how quickly exports have recovered from the pandemic-related crisis – they are now increasing exports from an already high base. Accordingly, many SMEs are now tapping into new markets, with the Gulf region, Russia, the US, and India emerging as key targets. In many countries, business conditions have changed. Consequently, it is important to remember that entering a new market requires a company to be well prepared if it is to gain an enduring foothold – even in a commercially favorable environment and especially if business conditions have changed. This is particularly true of global regions where the individual SMEs have yet to acquire any experience of their own.”
Further information on the SME export outlook for the first semester of 2022 can be found in the brochure, or can be downloaded at: www.s-ge.com/export-outlook

Video statements (in German) on current export sentiment by Meret Mügeli, a Credit Suisse economist, and Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise, are available here.

The SME Export Outlook for the second semester of 2022 will be published on July 7, 2022.

Credit Suisse Export Barometer methodology
The Credit Suisse Export Barometer takes as its basis the dependence of Swiss exports on foreign export markets. In constructing the export barometer, we have drawn together important leading industry indicators in Switzerland’s 28 most important export countries. These indicators generally have a forecast horizon of approximately one to two quarters. The values of these leading indicators are weighted on the basis of the share of exports that goes to each country. The export barometer consolidates this information to produce a single indicator. Since the values in question are standardized, the export barometer is calibrated in standard deviations. The zero line corresponds to the growth threshold. The long-term average growth of Swiss exports of approximately 5% is 1.
For more detailed information: Credit Suisse (2009), External Trade Switzerland – Facts and Trends, Swiss Issues: Industries, available at: www.credit-suisse.com/research.

Switzerland Global Enterprise SME Export Sentiment Indicator methodology
The SME export sentiment indicator is based on a semiannual survey of a fixed panel of around 200 Swiss SMEs. Participants represent the pharmaceuticals/chemicals industry, machinery, consumer goods, the metals industry, paper, electrical engineering, the precision instruments industry, services, ICT and food. SMEs indicate whether they expect growth, stagnation or a decline in exports in the current semester compared with the previous one. To emphasize the forecast nature of the SME export sentiment indicator, expected export activity in the following semester is weighted at 60% with exports in the current semester being weighted at 40%. The SME export sentiment indicator can range from 0 to 100, whereby figures between 0 and 50 show an expected decline in exports and figures of 50 to 100 an expected rise in exports. Participants provide further information on export volumes, for instance the reasons behind a change in their export volume, export markets, etc. This information gives an accurate picture of the export activities of Swiss SMEs.

Switzerland Global Enterprise
Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE) is the official Swiss organization for export and investment promotion with around 200 employees at offices throughout Switzerland and in 31 countries. We support Swiss SMEs in their international business and help innovative foreign companies to establish in Switzerland. In doing so, we rely on a unique network of national and global partners. This is how we create added value for our clients and prosperity for Switzerland. As a non-profit organization, we provide a public service for our clients on behalf of the Swiss Confederation (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO) and the cantons. We operate our 27 offices, known as Swiss Business Hubs and Trade Points, in 31 countries jointly with the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs FDFA. Thanks to our global network of partners, we support our clients in many other countries. www.s-ge.com.

Credit Suisse AG
Credit Suisse is one of the world’s leading financial services providers. Our strategy builds on Credit Suisse’s core strengths: its position as a leading wealth manager, its specialist investment banking capabilities, and its strong presence in our home market of Switzerland. We seek to follow a balanced approach to wealth management, aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets, while also serving key developed markets with an emphasis on Switzerland. Credit Suisse employs approximately 49,950 people. The registered shares (CSGN) of Credit Suisse Group AG, are listed in Switzerland and, in the form of American Depositary Shares (CS), in New York. Further information about Credit Suisse can be found at www.credit-suisse.com.

Disclaimer
This document was produced by Credit Suisse and Switzerland Global Enterprise. The opinions expressed herein are those of Credit Suisse and Switzerland Global Enterprise as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time. This document has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer, a recom-mendation, or an invitation from or on behalf of Credit Suisse to purchase or sell investment instruments or to execute transac-tions of any kind. References to past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future performance. Although the information and analysis contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, Credit Suisse and Switzerland Global Enterprise do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The publication may be quoted provided that it is cited as the source.

Media contact:

Credit Suisse AG
Tiziana Hunziker, Economist
+41 44 333 03 96
tiziana.hunziker.2@credit-suisse.com

Switzerland Global Enterprise
Christine Moser, Senior Communications Manager
+41 44 365 50 69
cmoser@s-ge.com

SOURCE: Credit Suisse AG