Brussels, 30-11-2012 — /europawire.eu/ — What is the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP)?
Over the first decade of Economic and Monetary Union, a number of EU Member States witnessed a build-up of macroeconomic imbalances. These vulnerabilities proved to be highly damaging once the financial crisis set in. Against this background, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was introduced in December 2011, as part of the so-called “six-pack” legislation, which reinforced the monitoring and surveillance of macroeconomic policies in the EU and the euro area. The aim of the MIP is to identify potential risks early on, prevent the emergence of harmful imbalances and correct the imbalances that are already in place. Surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances under the MIP forms part of the European Semester, which ensures integrated and forward-looking economic policy coordination in the EU.
The MIP has a preventive and a corrective arm. The preventive arm allows the Commission and the Council to adopt recommendations at an early stage before imbalances become excessive. The corrective arm triggers an Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP), which requires Member States to come forward with a corrective action plan. In order to ensure enforcement of the EIP, financial sanctions can be imposed on euro area Member States.
Which steps were taken during the first cycle of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure?
Implementation of the MIP started on 14 February 2012 when the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR). On that occasion, 12 EU Member States were identified as warranting further economic analysis in order to determine whether macroeconomic imbalances existed or risked emerging (IP/12/132, MEMO/12/104). These countries were Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom1. Subsequently, in-depth reviews were carried out on each of these Member States in order to examine the origin, nature and severity of possible macroeconomic imbalances. On 30 May 2012, the in-depth reviews were published.2 The analysis confirmed that these 12 Member States faced macroeconomic imbalances of different natures. The Commission considered that Spain and Cyprus were experiencing very serious imbalances, while the imbalances of France, Hungary, Italy and Slovenia were considered serious. None of these imbalances were deemed excessive (see below) in the sense of the procedure, but they all needed to be closely monitored (MEMO/12/388). Appropriate policy responses to these imbalances were integrated in the set of country-specific recommendations addressed to Member States under the European Semester, i.e. under the preventive arm of the MIP. These recommendations were endorsed by the European Council in June and subsequently adopted by the EU’s Council of Ministers in July.
What is the Alert Mechanism Report?
The Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) is the starting point of the new cycle of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). Based on a scoreboard of indicators, it is a filter to identify countries and issues for which an in-depth review is deemed necessary. It should be noted that there is no automatic or mechanical interpretation of the results of the scoreboard indicators in the AMR, and the selection of countries for an in-depth review takes into account all available information. The conclusions of previous in-depth reviews are also taken into account. Economic judgement ensures that all pieces of information are put in perspective.
On this basis, the Commission identifies Member States that show signs of potential macroeconomic imbalances or face challenges in adjusting to imbalances, and should therefore be looked into further. In these in-depth reviews, the driving forces behind the observed developments are analysed in detail with a view to determine the nature of the imbalances, and to judge whether they are persistent, aggravating or unwinding. After this in-depth analysis, the Commission may conclude that no harmful imbalances exist or it proposes a recommendation under the preventive or the corrective arm of the MIP, if appropriate (see below).
Which countries are analysed in the Alert Mechanism Report?
The Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) looks at all EU Member States except those that are subject to enhanced surveillance under economic adjustment programmes supported by official financing. This concerns Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Romania. The aim of this approach is to avoid duplication of procedure and reporting obligations.3
On which economic indicators is the scoreboard used in the Alert Mechanism Report based?
The scoreboard is made up of eleven indicators with a view to monitor external imbalances and competitiveness as well as internal imbalances (please see the individual indicators below). The indicators in the scoreboard allow an early identification of imbalances that emerge over the short term as well as of imbalances that arise due to structural and long-term trends. Indicative thresholds have been set for each indicator.
Compared to the scoreboard in the Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) of February 2012, which consisted of ten indicators, an additional indicator on the growth rate of financial sector liabilities has now been added. This eleventh indicator is intended to better capture the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector. The definitions of the other ten indicators have remained unchanged.
The design of the scoreboard is currently as follows:
External imbalances and competitiveness
- 3 year average of the current account balance as a percentage of GDP, with an indicative threshold of +6% and – 4% of GDP;
- net international investment position (NIIP) as a percentage of GDP, with an indicative threshold of -35%; the NIIP shows the difference between a country’s external financial assets and its external financial liabilities;
- 5 years percentage change of export market shares measured in values, with an indicative threshold of -6%;
- 3 years percentage change in nominal unit labour cost (ULC), with indicative thresholds of +9% for euro area countries and +12% for non-euro area countries.
- 3 years percentage change in real effective exchange rates (REER) based on HICP deflators, relative to 35 other industrial countries, with indicative thresholds of -/+5% for euro area countries and -/+11% for non-euro area countries; the REER shows price competitiveness relative to the main trading partners.
Internal imbalances
- private sector debt as a percentage of GDP with a threshold of 160%;
- private sector credit flow as a percentage of GDP with an indicative threshold of 15%;
- year-on-year percentage change in deflated house prices, with an indicative threshold of 6%;
- public sector debt as a percentage of GDP with an indicative threshold of 60%;
- 3-year average of unemployment rate, with an indicative threshold of 10%;
- year-on-year percentage change in total financial liabilities of the financial sector, with an indicative threshold of 16.5%.
What are the findings on overall macroeconomic developments in the EU?
There are positive signs that the adjustment of macroeconomic imbalances is progressing, as evidenced by the Commission’s latest economic forecast (IP/12/1178). The reforms undertaken in many EU Member States appear to be bearing fruit. For example, saving rates in the private and public sectors and the economies as a whole have increased. Moreover, current account deficits are coming down in the countries with the largest external imbalances. This is supported by gains in competitiveness and by recent unit labour cost developments in several countries concerned, which point to more rebalancing down the road. However, it has to be noted that a compression of domestic demand and imports has also contributed to the reduction of current account deficits. Besides the adjustment in Member States with large current account deficits, the current account balances of several Member States in surplus have also been declining, albeit at a slower pace.
Although adjustment is taking place in many areas, there is still a long way to go before a complete and durable rebalancing is achieved. The adjustment of accumulated macroeconomic imbalances is however crucial to boosting economic growth and job creation in the medium and long term.
Which countries are identified as warranting an in-depth review in the new Alert Mechanism Report?
Based on the economic analysis and the scoreboard with 2011 data, the Commission considers that 14 Member States warrant an in-depth review. These include the 12 Member States that were considered to face imbalances in May 2012 (MEMO/12/388). In addition, the Commission finds that Malta and the Netherlands warrant an in-depth review. It is worth stressing that the Commission has not identified an imbalance at this stage, but is simply identifying the countries that deserve a more detailed analysis before reaching a conclusion.
Why does the Commission suggest taking a closer look at developments in Malta and the Netherlands?
On the basis of the updated scoreboard, and considering economic developments (for example the Commission’s autumn forecast), the Commission considers that it would be useful to take a closer look at macroeconomic developments in Malta and the Netherlands to further examine potential risks.
Malta: Malta’s financial sector requires closer investigation. Potential risks relate to the nexus of an extremely large financial system and the high exposure of the banks to the property markets, in combination with high private sector indebtedness. Moreover, the size of the financial system is very large.
The Netherlands: There is a need to investigate more in-depth the potential risks stemming from a very elevated level of private sector debt in combination with high house prices.
What will be the next steps following the Alert Mechanism Report?
The conclusions of the Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) will be discussed in the Eurogroup – if they concern euro area Member States – and in the ECOFIN Council. This enables the Commission to obtain appropriate feedback from Member States. The Commission is also looking forward to the contribution of the European Parliament and key stakeholders. Taking all the reactions into account, the Commission will prepare country-specific in-depth reviews in the coming months and present them in spring. This will involve a dialogue with the Member States concerned.
What is the possible outcome of an in-depth review?
An in-depth review does not automatically lead to a recommendation. The Commission’s analysis could result in one of three different scenarios shown by the graph below.
1. If the situation is considered unproblematic, the European Commission will conclude that no further steps are necessary under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP).
2. If the European Commission considers that a macroeconomic imbalance exists or could arise, it will come forward with the appropriate recommendations under the preventive arm of the MIP. The Member State concerned will be asked to correct the imbalance or prevent an imbalance from occurring. These recommendations would be presented in the context of the European Semester as part of the package of country-specific recommendations (May).
3. If the macroeconomic imbalances are considered severe or excessive and may jeopardise the proper functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union, the European Commission can recommend that the Council of Ministers places the Member State under an Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP), this is the corrective arm of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. In this case, the Member State concerned will have to submit a ‘corrective action plan’ with a clear roadmap and deadlines for implementing adequate measures. Surveillance will be stepped up by the Commission on the basis of regular progress reports drawn up by the Member State concerned.
Are any sanctions planned to ensure that the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure is properly carried out?
There are no fines foreseen under the preventive arm of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. However, if the Member State concerned does not take sufficient action to address imbalances identified in the scope of the in-depth reviews, it risks a further build-up of imbalances and the possibility of an Excessive Imbalance Procedure.
Under the Excessive Imbalance Procedure, financial sanctions (up to 0.1% of GDP) are foreseen for euro area Member States if the country concerned fails to comply with the recommended corrective action. It should be stressed that it is the failure to take agreed action that could be sanctioned, not the fact that the imbalance has not disappeared. A sanction can also be imposed for twice failing to submit a sufficient corrective action plan.
What is the legal basis of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure?
The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) is based on two Regulations. The first (Regulation 1176/2011) sets out the details of the new surveillance procedure and covers all 27 EU Member States. The second (Regulation 1174/2011) focuses on enforcement, including the possibility of sanctions, and only applies to euro area Member States.
For further information:
AMR:
Please note that the programme countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Romania) are not assessed in the Alert Mechanism Report, as they are already under enhanced economic surveillance.
The in-depth reviews of May 2012 are available at European Economy-Occasional Papers, 99 to 110, please see http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2012/index_en.htm.
Spain is discussed in the report, although it benefits from official financing for the recapitalisation of banks. Cyprus and Hungary are also discussed as negotiations for financial assistance have not yet been concluded. Once either of them becomes a programme country, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure will be suspended and replaced by the programme monitoring reviews.
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- Archpriest Nikolay Balashov on Patriarch Bartholomew’s speeches in Kiev
- ABB's Peter Voser joins Xynteo's Europe Delivers partnership as it new Chairman
- Digi Communications NV announces that a new stock option programme was approved
- Leverage the benefits of digital manufacturing with Haizol
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the H1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call on the Financial Results for H1 2021
- Rockegitarist-Sensasjon Rocky Kramer Har Fått Hovedrollen I Mutt Productions Filmen Rockin’ In Time
- Dispatch.d Offers Unique US Market Entry Services for European Impact Brands
- CSA Research’s New Localization Intelligence Analyzer, powered by LocHub, Helps Organizations Improve their Website’s Effectiveness for Global Customers
- Customer Data Platform Industry Accelerated During Pandemic: CDP Institute Report
- Digi Communications N.V. announces that two of its subsidiaries entered into two facility agreements
- Introducing Cap Expand Partners, Helping Business Leaders Break International Barriers
- Hong Kong’s Innovation and Technology Venture Fund Becomes Strategic Financial Investor of Ignatica
- Cure for prostate cancer on the horizon
- Fanpictor signs multi-year partnership with Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor unterzeichnet mehrjährige Partnerschaft mit dem Königlich Belgischen Fussballverband
- Fanpictor signe un partenariat pluriannuel avec la Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor firma una colaboración de varios años con la Real Federación Belga de Fútbol
- Fanpictor firma una partnership pluriennale con la Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor tekent meerjarige partnership met Koninklijke Belgische Voetbalbond
- Launch of the New Akenza Platform
- De zelflerende algoritme DBLG1®: eenvoudig te gebruiken voor een optimale en gepersonaliseerde behandeling van diabetes type 1
- Launch of the Anna Lindh Foundation Virtual Marathon for Dialogue!
- Digi Communications N.V. announces the exercise of stock options by the Executive Director of the Company pursuant to the decision of the Company’s general meeting of shareholders dated 30 April 2020 and in accordance with the stock option plan approved at the level of the Company in 2017
- New research unlocks long tail growth opportunity for the tech industry
- Digi Communications NV announces the availability of the instructions on the 2020 share dividend payment
- Digi Communications NV announces that conditional stock options were granted to several Directors of the Company based on the approval of the general meeting of shareholders from 18 May 2021
- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the Company’s General Shareholders Meeting resolutions adopted on 18 May 2021 approving, amongst others, the 2020 Annual Accounts
- Digi Communications N.V. (“Digi”) announces the Q1 2021 Financial results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the Q1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications N.V. announces an Amendment to the 2021 Financial Calendar
- Fastpayhotels Hits an Industry Milestone by Connecting 500 Hotels Per Day Through DerbySoft Technology
- 4 ways to build a more flexible supply chain
- Join the world's leading virtual CBD event for FREE
- DEEPENING STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UBC AND PIONEERING DECENTRALISED PLATFORM, MANYONE
- Mono Solutions recognizes Norwegian small business agency with best website 2021 award
- Mono Solutions and Xrysos Odigos unlock new opportunities for small businesses
- Behind the scenes of a 10,000-people online conference: creating a live-event atmosphere and leveraging cybersecurity software
- Largest Supply Chain for Face masks, FFP2, FFP3 and cloth masks
- TRANSMAR AND TRANSMETRICS SIGN DEAL FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART LOGISTICS COLLABORATION
- Amendment of Digi Communications N.V. Financial Calendar for 2021
- 4iG and Digi Communications NV’s Romanian subsidiary have entered into a term sheet with regards to a potential acquisition by 4iG of DIGI Group’s Hungarian operations
- “Building Healthy Relationships and Enhancing Gender Equality”: Young women from Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan come together
- Bring Ventures investit dans Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP et une solution de commerce électronique
- Bring Ventures investiert in Crossborderit (CBIT), eine DDP (geliefert verzollt) und E-Commerce Lösung
- Bring Ventures invests in Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP and ecommerce solution
- Lionspeed GP with Patrick Kolb and Lorenzo Rocco joins forces with CarCollection Motorsport in 2021
- Eurekos, ein klassenbester LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position im renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme verbessert
- Eurekos, en førsteklasses LMS-udbyder, har forstærket sin position på den prestigefyldte Fosway 9-Grid™ for læringssystemer
- Eurekos, ein erstklassiger LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position auf dem renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme weiter ausgebaut
- Digi Communications N.V. announces Share transaction made by an executive director of the Company with class B shares
- Digi Communications N.V.: Announces an Amendment to the Financial Calendar for 2021
- Ideanomics Invests $13M in Italian EV Motorcycle Company, Energica
- DigiSky and Asman Technology Announce Global Reseller Agreement
- Neowintech - O Marketplace Da Sua Próxima Solução Financeira
- Neowintech - Il Marketplace per la tua prossima soluzione finanziaria
- PIONEERING DECENTRALISED SECURE MESSAGING PLATFORM MANYONE ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON CENTRE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- Fraunhofer IGD develops automated robotic arm to scan cultural objects in 3D, now cooperating with Phase One
- Adapt Fast or Disappear – Choosing the Right Supplier
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- A URSAPHARM Arzneimittel e a CEBINA anunciam uma parceria com vista a reaproveitar o anti-histamínico azelastina para combater a COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel et CEBINA annoncent un partenariat pour reconvertir l'antihistaminique azélastine afin de lutter contre la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel y CEBINA anuncian una colaboración para readaptar el antihistamínico azelastine para combatir la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel and CEBINA announce partnership to repurpose the antihistamine azelastine to combat COVID-19
- ANIL UZUN Will Launch Bass Guitar Lessons Series on Youtube
- Henrik Stampe Appointed CEO for Mono Solutions
- Anna Mossberg leder Nordens största privata AI-lab i Sverige: "Utan AI riskerar svenska företag att förlora sin konkurrensfördel."
- What COVID-19 has taught us about manufacturing & the importance of a digital online marketplace
- Digi Communications N.V. announces: the Supreme Court of Hungary dismissed the Company’s appeal related to the 5G Tender procedure
- Customer Data Platform Industry to Reach $1.5 Billion in 2021: CDP Institute Report
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GreenMantra Technologies Announces Exclusive Distribution Relationship with HARKE GROUP