Gentle Fed hikes, Chinese soft landing, persistent Grexit risk
STOCKHOLM, 26-8-2015 — /EuropaWire/ — The world economy is hesitating. Looking back at developments this spring and summer, the lingering impression is that global growth is not really willing to take off. One reason is still-cautious behaviour among businesses and households in developed market (DM) countries. Low interest rates, rising asset prices and stronger purchasing power are thus not providing the same stimulus to capital spending and consumption that would normally have been the case. Meanwhile uncertainty about emerging market (EM) economic performance has intensified. In China, the stock market downturn combined with a change in currency policy (devaluation of the yuan) is raising questions about the country’s economic stability, while countries like Brazil, Russia and Uraine are undergoing deeper economic and political crises. The demographic and structural problems of EM countries have become clearer as the forces of globalisation have slowed. The growth in world trade has decelerated, compared to the pre-crisis situation.
Gentle monetary policies wll help sustain a multi-speed world economy
Yet the main features of our forecast scenario remain intact. In the United States, the economy will soon speed up to an annual growth rate of around 3 per cent, from nearly 2.5 per cent this year. The US manufacturing sector is being hampered by a strong dollar, but the service sector is exuding optimism and the housing market once again has a tailwind. American household incomes will be sustained by rising employment and, eventually, also faster wage and salary growth. In Japan, the first half of 2015 was dominated by weak consumption and exports. Meanwhile Western European economic conditions have stabilised. Despite a strong currency and tight fiscal policy, the United Kingdom is experiencing rather fast economic expansion. The euro zone is showing good resilience to the Greek debt crisis, and it is difficult to discern any major contagion effects. The German economy is expanding at a healthy pace, but Spain in particular has surprised on the upside. A weaker currency, easier credit conditions due to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s stimulus programme and low energy prices will help euro zone GDP growth accelerate from just over 1.5 per cent this year to more than 2 per cent in 2016. We are also sticking to our forecast that China’s deceleration will occur gradually and in a controlled way. The recent export downturn may indicate some competitiveness problems, but China’s exports are substantially more dependent on changes in international demand than on exchange rates; we believe that the recent yuan devaluations should be viewed as a step in the deregulation of the financial market. China’s deceleration is mainly driven by a weak housing market and lower capital spending, and in these areas there are certain signs of stabilisation. Meanwhile Beijing has both the monetary and fiscal muscles to help sustain the economy. However, theeconomic situation was clouded by this summer’s stock market plunge and the central bank’s currency policy reorientation. There is greater uncertainty about reform efforts and about the risk of policy errors connected to deregulation of financial markets. Strong expansion in India will help keep overall EM economic growth high. Overall, we expect global GDP growth to reach 3.2 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2016, slightly lower than in May’s Nordic Outlook for both years.
Because of a tighter labour market situation, GDP growth in the US will peak in 2016 and then approach its long-term trend in 2017. Various factors suggest that the economy will continue to expand for quite some time to come, for example a continued upside for cyclical sectors and a very leisurely normalisation of interest rates. In the euro zone, however, unemployment remains high and no supply-side constraints will make themselves felt during our forecast period. GDP growth will thus remain at roughly unchanged levels in 2017. Looking at the 34 mainly affluent countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as a whole, growth will thus decelerate a bit towards the end of our forecast period. In the EM countries, however, growth will improve in 2017 as the situation in crisis-hit countries like Russia and Brazil stabilises, while India will continue its rapid growth. Global GDP growth will end up at 3.9 per cent in 2017, marginally above its 2016 level.
The labour market is approaching equilibrium in many countries
Assessments of resource utilisation in the economy of different regions are important as a basis for making forecasts about central bank policies and financial markets.Unemployment in the three largest OECD economies (the US, Japan and Germany) is close to equilibrium, but as yet there are few signs of faster pay increases. Because of a global price squeeze, especially for commodities, deflationary forces continue to dominate. Inflation and unemployment are not following their classic inverse relationship, which is creating headaches for the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Can we rely on inflation and pay increases to remain low, or do we risk a “ketchup effect” once the labour market becomes sufficiently hot? The Fed has now clearly signalled that it is prepared to begin key interest rate hikes, indicating that it is not ready to abandon old analytical frameworks, but it probably views the risk of prematurely killing the recovery as greater than the risk of an overheating scenario if the central bank should wait too long. This implies that the Fed can be expected to proceed very cautiously with its key rate hikes. Our main scenario is still that the first rate hike will occur in September but that the second hike will not come until March 2016. The rate path we foresee is far more gentle than both the historical pattern and the path signalled by the Fed itself, reflecting our view that the Fed will encounter rather severe headwinds in a low-inflation environment where several other leading central banks are continuing their stimulative policies. We believe that the Bank of England (BoE) will follow the Fed’s example and begin rate hikes in February. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will expand its stimulus measures this autumn, while the ECB continues monthly bond purchases at least until September 2016, as planned; if anything, these purchases may be expanded. The differences between US and UK monetary policy, on the one hand, and euro zone and Japanese policy on the other, will drive foreign exchange (FX) trends during the coming year. We thus anticipate that the EUR/USD exchange rate will again fall, reaching parity (1.00) in mid-2016. Meanwhile the Fed’s slow rate path is the reason for our view thatbond yields will move higher but remain historically low. Although global economic and financial market trends seem more mixed and uncertain than before, we are still in a phase of the economic cycle that is usually favourable to equities. Emerging market countries are the most vulnerable to Fed rate hikes, but history shows that EM asset prices are usually resilient to tighter Fed policy if rate hikes are based on stronger US economic growth.
Good growth in Sweden, but major economic policy challenges
Our forecast of 3.0 per cent Swedish GDP growth this year remains unchanged, and GDP will keep growing above trend in 2016 and 2017, partly sustained by gradually stronger international economic conditions. Yet there has been no real lift-off in the manufacturing sector. Merchandise exports and industrial production rose during the first half of 2015, but forward-looking indicators do not signal that any vigorous recovery is on the way. Better growth in Europe and the US is being offset by deceleration in China and various other EM countries. Service exports appear likely to climb by nearly 10 per cent, however, contributing to a relatively rapid increase in total exports. Despite lower trade surpluses, Sweden’s current account surplus remains high due to capital income.
The rapid population increase is affecting domestic economic performance in various ways. Private consumption is growing at a relatively good pace, but per capita consumption is increasing somewhat more slowly than the historical average, since households are continuing to build up their savings. Rapid housing construction is helping to boost overall capital spending despite cautious businesses, but this is not enough to ease the imbalances in the housing market. Employment is growing at a healthy pace, also partly due to rapid population growth, and unemployment is falling very slowly.
Next year the collective agreements covering most of the Swedish labour market will expire. Depressed inflation expectations and a long period of good real wage increases suggest that high pay agreements are unlikely, despite labour market tensions. The wage round this coming winter and spring will thus not solve the Riksbank’s dilemma. Inflation is climbing, partly due to a weaker krona, but will not reach the central bank’s 2 per cent target. In the short term, the Riksbank will remain under pressure from low inflation expectations and falling oil prices. We expect a further repo rate cut to -0.45 per cent this autumn as the Riksbank continues its struggle to restore the credibility of the inflation target. We expect the Riksbank eventually to pay greater attention to the risks of rising home prices and debt, and its first key rate hike will occur in late 2016. In the short term, one further rate cut will push down the krona, but signs of slightly higher inflation will enable the Riksbank to lower its guard and allow a somewhat stronger krona. The EUR/SEK exchange rate will be 9.20 at the end of 2015 and 8.80 at the end of 2016. Because of the further key rate cut, Swedish 10-year government bond yields will probably drop below German yields, but long-term yields will then rise faster than in Germany as the Riksbank prepares its rate hikes. Sweden’s political situation is dominated by gridlock and a lack of constructive cooperation between the political blocs. We expect a relatively cautious 2016 budget in September, but there is increasing pressure to enact more aggressive policies.
Rather good outlook elsewhere in the Nordic region
The economic outlook in the other Nordic countries is mixed. In Denmark the recovery is solid, while the Norwegian economy is being hampered by the consequences of falling oil prices. For a long time, the Finnish economy has been grappling with structural problems; 2015 will be a year of zero growth after three years of falling GDP. For the region as a whole, the growth outlook appears rather good. A weak currency and resilient households will limit the scale of the slowdown in Norway, while Danish growth will accelerate with the help of expansionary fiscal policy and good consumption growth. In Norway, Norges Bank is focusing more on risks to growth and competitiveness than on inflation, which has been in line with the central bank’s target for some time. The bank has continued to signal a high probability of a further rate cut this autumn. We believe that Norges Bank exaggerates the risks of contagion from the oil industry and that the next step will be a rate hike late in 2016.
Rising private consumption will continue to sustain growth in the Baltic countries as exports and capital spending are again hampered next year by Russia’s recession and import restrictions, as well as by geopolitical uncertain due to the Ukraine conflict. GDP growth will accelerate in all three countries but remain moderate, reaching its potential pace only in 2017. Estonia’s strongly export-dependent economy is slowly emerging from a relatively deep slump. Latvia seems the most resilient of the Baltics to Russian weakness and import sanctions, while Lithuania is more adversely affected than we expected; we are sharply lowering our GDP forecast there.
Key figures: International & Swedish economy (figures in brackets are forecasts from the May 2015 issue of Nordic Outlook)
International economy, GDP, year-on-year changes, % | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
United States | 2.4 | 2.4 (2.7) | 3.1 (3.2) | 2.6 | |
Euro zone | 0.8 | 1.6 (1.7) | 2.1 (2.1) | 2.0 | |
Japan | -0.1 | 0.8 (1.1) | 1.3 (1.3) | 1.0 | |
OECD | 1.9 | 2.2 (2.3) | 2.6 (2.7) | 2.4 | |
China | 7.4 | 6.8 (6.8) | 6.5 (6.5) | 6.3 | |
Nordic countries | 1.6 | 1.8 (1.8) | 2.1 (2.1) | 2.1 | |
Baltic countries | 2.6 | 2.2 (2.5) | 2.7 (3.1) | 3.4 | |
The world (purchasing power parities, PPP) | 3.4 | 3.2 (3.4) | 3.8 (3.9) | 3.9 | |
Swedish economy. Year-on-year changes, % | |||||
GDP, actual | 2.3 | 3.0 (3.0) | 2.8 (2.7) | 2.5 | |
GDP, working day corrected | 2.4 | 2.8 (2.8) | 2.6 (2.5) | 2.7 | |
Unemployment, % (EU definition) | 7.9 | 7.5 (7.6) | 7.3 (7.3) | 6.9 | |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation | -0.2 | 0.1 (0.2) | 1.1 (1.2) | 2.0 | |
Government net lending (% of GDP) | -1.9 | -1.4 (-1.3) | -0.8 (-0.7) | -0.2 | |
Repo rate (December) | 0.00 | -0.45 (-0.40) | -0.25 (0.00) | 0.75 | |
Exchange rate, EUR/SEK (December) | 9.39 | 9.20 (8.95) | 8.80 (8.80) | 8.60 | |
For more information, please contact Robert Bergqvist, +46 70 445 1404 Håkan Frisén, +46 70 763 8067 Elisabet Kopelman, +46 8 763 8046 Daniel Bergvall, +46 8 763 8594 Mattias Bruér, +46 8 763 8506 Olle Holmgren, +46 8 763 8079 Mikael Johansson, +46 8 763 8093 Andreas Johnson, +46 8 763 8032 |
Press contact Laurence Westerlund, Press & PR +46 70 763 8627 laurence.westerlund@seb.se |
||||
SEB is a leading Nordic financial services group. As a relationship bank, SEB in Sweden and the Baltic countries offers financial advice and a wide range of other financial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway and Germany the bank’s operations have a strong focus on corporate and investment banking based on a full-service offering to corporate and institutional clients. The international nature of SEB’s business is reflected in its presence in some 20 countries worldwide. On June 30, 2015, the Group’s total assets amounted to SEK 2,760 billion while its assets under management totalled SEK 1,780 billion. The Group has about 16,000 employees. Read more about SEB at www.sebgroup.com. |
SOURCE: Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ)
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- Digi Communications N.V. announces the extraordinary general meeting’s resolution from 4 November 2021, approving the appointment of KPMG N.V. as the Company’s statutory auditor for the 2021 financial year
- Digi Communications N.V. announces The solution reached by the Bucharest Court of Appeal regarding the investigation conducted by the Romanian National Anticorruption Directorate with respect to RCS & RDS S.A., Integrasoft S.R.L. and certain of their directors
- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the results of the auction organised by the Portuguese Authority for Telecommunications
- Haizol expands its capabilities to include component assembly and product development
- EIC, the World’s Largest Multinational Innovation Program, to Invest €13.4M in Wi-Charge, a Game Changing Wireless Power Company
- European Weightlifting Federation on its way for Electoral Congress
- “Without women, We are unable to solve the world’s greatest challenges” — She Loves Tech 12 Hot Finalists ready to get their chance at the Local Pitch in South Europe!
- Significant improvement in increasing Time In Range and reducing hypoglycemia among people equipped with Diabeloop DBLG1
- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the Convocation of the Company’s Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders on 4 November 2021 in order to appoint KPMG N.V. as the Company’s new statutory auditor for the financial year 2021
- Unit of Measure enters partnership with Stibo Systems
- Haizol, metal manufacturing giant, launch a brand new website which is both user friendly and interactive
- Groundbreaking Immersive Experience from Samsung and Artist Michael Murphy Reveals a New Perspective for Visual Entertainment Through the Stunningly Slim Neo QLED TV
- Collaboration between Airbus and Neural Concept
- Archpriest Nikolay Balashov on Patriarch Bartholomew’s speeches in Kiev
- ABB's Peter Voser joins Xynteo's Europe Delivers partnership as it new Chairman
- Digi Communications NV announces that a new stock option programme was approved
- Leverage the benefits of digital manufacturing with Haizol
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the H1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call on the Financial Results for H1 2021
- Rockegitarist-Sensasjon Rocky Kramer Har Fått Hovedrollen I Mutt Productions Filmen Rockin’ In Time
- Dispatch.d Offers Unique US Market Entry Services for European Impact Brands
- CSA Research’s New Localization Intelligence Analyzer, powered by LocHub, Helps Organizations Improve their Website’s Effectiveness for Global Customers
- Customer Data Platform Industry Accelerated During Pandemic: CDP Institute Report
- Digi Communications N.V. announces that two of its subsidiaries entered into two facility agreements
- Introducing Cap Expand Partners, Helping Business Leaders Break International Barriers
- Hong Kong’s Innovation and Technology Venture Fund Becomes Strategic Financial Investor of Ignatica
- Cure for prostate cancer on the horizon
- Fanpictor signs multi-year partnership with Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor unterzeichnet mehrjährige Partnerschaft mit dem Königlich Belgischen Fussballverband
- Fanpictor signe un partenariat pluriannuel avec la Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor firma una colaboración de varios años con la Real Federación Belga de Fútbol
- Fanpictor firma una partnership pluriennale con la Royal Belgian Football Association
- Fanpictor tekent meerjarige partnership met Koninklijke Belgische Voetbalbond
- Launch of the New Akenza Platform
- De zelflerende algoritme DBLG1®: eenvoudig te gebruiken voor een optimale en gepersonaliseerde behandeling van diabetes type 1
- Launch of the Anna Lindh Foundation Virtual Marathon for Dialogue!
- Digi Communications N.V. announces the exercise of stock options by the Executive Director of the Company pursuant to the decision of the Company’s general meeting of shareholders dated 30 April 2020 and in accordance with the stock option plan approved at the level of the Company in 2017
- New research unlocks long tail growth opportunity for the tech industry
- Digi Communications NV announces the availability of the instructions on the 2020 share dividend payment
- Digi Communications NV announces that conditional stock options were granted to several Directors of the Company based on the approval of the general meeting of shareholders from 18 May 2021
- Digi Communications N.V. Announces the Company’s General Shareholders Meeting resolutions adopted on 18 May 2021 approving, amongst others, the 2020 Annual Accounts
- Digi Communications N.V. (“Digi”) announces the Q1 2021 Financial results
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the Q1 2021 Financial Results
- Digi Communications N.V. announces an Amendment to the 2021 Financial Calendar
- Fastpayhotels Hits an Industry Milestone by Connecting 500 Hotels Per Day Through DerbySoft Technology
- 4 ways to build a more flexible supply chain
- Join the world's leading virtual CBD event for FREE
- DEEPENING STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UBC AND PIONEERING DECENTRALISED PLATFORM, MANYONE
- Mono Solutions recognizes Norwegian small business agency with best website 2021 award
- Mono Solutions and Xrysos Odigos unlock new opportunities for small businesses
- Behind the scenes of a 10,000-people online conference: creating a live-event atmosphere and leveraging cybersecurity software
- Largest Supply Chain for Face masks, FFP2, FFP3 and cloth masks
- TRANSMAR AND TRANSMETRICS SIGN DEAL FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART LOGISTICS COLLABORATION
- Amendment of Digi Communications N.V. Financial Calendar for 2021
- 4iG and Digi Communications NV’s Romanian subsidiary have entered into a term sheet with regards to a potential acquisition by 4iG of DIGI Group’s Hungarian operations
- “Building Healthy Relationships and Enhancing Gender Equality”: Young women from Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan come together
- Bring Ventures investit dans Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP et une solution de commerce électronique
- Bring Ventures investiert in Crossborderit (CBIT), eine DDP (geliefert verzollt) und E-Commerce Lösung
- Bring Ventures invests in Crossborderit (CBIT), DDP and ecommerce solution
- Lionspeed GP with Patrick Kolb and Lorenzo Rocco joins forces with CarCollection Motorsport in 2021
- Eurekos, ein klassenbester LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position im renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme verbessert
- Eurekos, en førsteklasses LMS-udbyder, har forstærket sin position på den prestigefyldte Fosway 9-Grid™ for læringssystemer
- Eurekos, ein erstklassiger LMS-Anbieter, hat seine Position auf dem renommierten Fosway 9-Grid™ für Lernsysteme weiter ausgebaut
- Digi Communications N.V. announces Share transaction made by an executive director of the Company with class B shares
- Digi Communications N.V.: Announces an Amendment to the Financial Calendar for 2021
- Ideanomics Invests $13M in Italian EV Motorcycle Company, Energica
- DigiSky and Asman Technology Announce Global Reseller Agreement
- Neowintech - O Marketplace Da Sua Próxima Solução Financeira
- Neowintech - Il Marketplace per la tua prossima soluzione finanziaria
- PIONEERING DECENTRALISED SECURE MESSAGING PLATFORM MANYONE ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON CENTRE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
- Digi Communications NV announces the release of the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- Fraunhofer IGD develops automated robotic arm to scan cultural objects in 3D, now cooperating with Phase One
- Adapt Fast or Disappear – Choosing the Right Supplier
- Digi Communications NV announces Investors Call for the 2020 Preliminary Financial Results
- A URSAPHARM Arzneimittel e a CEBINA anunciam uma parceria com vista a reaproveitar o anti-histamínico azelastina para combater a COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel et CEBINA annoncent un partenariat pour reconvertir l'antihistaminique azélastine afin de lutter contre la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel y CEBINA anuncian una colaboración para readaptar el antihistamínico azelastine para combatir la COVID-19
- URSAPHARM Arzneimittel and CEBINA announce partnership to repurpose the antihistamine azelastine to combat COVID-19
- ANIL UZUN Will Launch Bass Guitar Lessons Series on Youtube
- Henrik Stampe Appointed CEO for Mono Solutions
- Anna Mossberg leder Nordens största privata AI-lab i Sverige: "Utan AI riskerar svenska företag att förlora sin konkurrensfördel."
- What COVID-19 has taught us about manufacturing & the importance of a digital online marketplace
- Digi Communications N.V. announces: the Supreme Court of Hungary dismissed the Company’s appeal related to the 5G Tender procedure
- Customer Data Platform Industry to Reach $1.5 Billion in 2021: CDP Institute Report
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GreenMantra Technologies Announces Exclusive Distribution Relationship with HARKE GROUP