New Research Reveals That Combining Genetic and Demographic Data Enhances Prediction of Species’ Extinction Risks

New Research Reveals That Combining Genetic and Demographic Data Enhances Prediction of Species’ Extinction Risks

(IN BRIEF) New research demonstrates that combining genetic diversity data with demographic information provides a more accurate prediction of extinction risks in natural populations. The study, conducted on the Glanville fritillary butterfly, shows that while genetic diversity is important, its impact on extinction risk is strongly influenced by population size and dispersal potential. The findings highlight the need for conservation strategies that integrate both genetic and demographic data to effectively protect vulnerable species.

(PRESS RELEASE) HELSINKI, 17-Aug-2024 — /EuropaWire/ — A recent study has highlighted the importance of integrating genetic diversity data with demographic information to more accurately assess the extinction risks of natural populations. The research, conducted on the Glanville fritillary butterfly population in the Åland Islands, Finland, demonstrates that while genome-wide genetic diversity is a valuable indicator of extinction risk, its predictive power is significantly enhanced when combined with demographic factors such as population size and dispersal potential.

As species around the world face growing environmental pressures, understanding the factors that contribute to population decline and extinction becomes increasingly critical. The loss of genetic diversity can lead to inbreeding and reduce a species’ ability to adapt to environmental changes. However, the study reveals that genetic diversity alone does not always provide a complete picture of a population’s viability.

Key Findings: The Role of Demographic Data

The research team discovered that the relationship between genetic diversity and extinction risk is complex and influenced by additional variables. Professor Marjo Saastamoinen, the senior author of the study, explains: “Our findings show that genetic diversity’s impact on extinction risk is strongly influenced by underlying demographic factors. Without accounting for these, conclusions about population viability may be misleading.”

Dr. Michelle DiLeo, the study’s lead author, emphasizes the importance of a holistic approach: “Focusing solely on genetic diversity could lead to oversimplified conclusions, as the effects of genetic diversity on extinction risk are not uniform across different populations and environments. Integrating demographic data such as population trends and migration patterns provides a clearer understanding of species vulnerability.”

One of the study’s key insights is that not all populations with low genetic diversity are necessarily at high risk of extinction. In some cases, these populations were sustained by the arrival of individuals from other populations, highlighting the importance of connectivity and dispersal in conservation strategies.

Implications for Conservation Efforts

The researchers recommend that conservation strategies should not rely exclusively on genetic data but also incorporate demographic information to gain a comprehensive understanding of extinction risks. Specifically, they suggest focusing on three critical areas: genome-wide genetic diversity, population size trends, and the potential for population rescue through dispersal.

These findings underscore the need for strategic data collection, especially for species that are currently data-deficient. By combining genetic and demographic data, conservationists can better prioritize efforts to maintain population connectivity and mitigate the risks associated with low genetic diversity, thereby enhancing the resilience of species facing environmental change.

Further Reading

The full study, titled “Demography and environment modulate the effects of genetic diversity on extinction risk in a butterfly metapopulation,” was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and is available online for those interested in a deeper exploration of the research.

Utilizing long-term monitoring data of the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Assessing the relationship between genetic diversity and extinction risk in natural populations is not trivial as it requires high resolution population level genetic and demographic data. The researchers utilized the well-known ecological model system of the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation in the Åland islands, SW Finland. For this system the survival of thousands of local populations and overwintering larval nests have been systematically monitored across over 30 years, data which has been more recently been accompanied with genetic data.

In this study genetic data from 7,501 individuals with extinction data from 279 meadows and mortality of 1,742 larval nests in a butterfly metapopulation were analyzed. This allowed researchers to assess the effect of genetic diversity on extinction rates across years and under different conditions such as between small and large populations, in populations with longer history of decline and when extinctions could not be rescued by dispersal from nearby populations.

Media Contacts:

Marjo Saastamoinen
Professor
Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme
Research Centre for Ecological Change (REC)
University of Helsinki
marjo.saastamoinen@helsinki.fi
Tel: +358294157741

Dr. Michelle DiLeo
Research Centre for Ecological Change (REC)
University of Helsinki
email: michelledileo@trentu.ca
Tel: +14168070220

SOURCE: University of Helsinki