Lightning silently fells 320 million trees a year as TUM study reveals near wildfire-level CO₂ emissions

Lightning silently fells 320 million trees a year as TUM study reveals near wildfire-level CO₂ emissions

(IN BRIEF) TUM researchers estimate that lightning kills about 320 million trees each year—damage that has been difficult to detect and previously underestimated. By augmenting the LPJ-GUESS global vegetation model with observational data and global lightning patterns, the team quantified both the scale and regional distribution of lightning-induced mortality. They found this accounts for 2.1–2.9% of annual plant biomass loss, emitting 0.77–1.09 gigatonnes of CO₂—nearly matching the ~1.26 gigatonnes released from burning living plants in wildfires (though total wildfire emissions are ~5.85 gigatonnes including deadwood and soils). Currently highest in tropical forests, lightning mortality may rise in temperate and boreal regions as flash frequency increases. The study underscores lightning as an underappreciated disturbance with significant implications for carbon storage and forest dynamics.

(PRESS RELEASE) MUNICH, 22-Jul-2025 — /EuropaWire/ — Lightning is costing the world’s forests far more than previously recognized. A research team at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) has produced the first global estimate of how many trees succumb directly to lightning damage each year—and the figure is startling: around 320 million trees die annually after being struck. Losses from wildfires sparked by lightning are not included in this total. With climate models projecting more frequent lightning in the decades ahead, the toll could rise.

Because lightning scars are hard to spot and long-term monitoring has been rare, scientists have struggled to quantify its true ecological footprint. Earlier studies relied on plot-level observations in a handful of forests. The TUM group chose a different route. They enhanced a widely used dynamic global vegetation model—LPJ-GUESS—by feeding in observational datasets and worldwide lightning distribution patterns. “This lets us estimate not only how many trees are killed each year, but also pinpoint the regions hit hardest and evaluate what that means for carbon storage and forest structure,” says Andreas Krause, lead author from TUM’s Chair of Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions.

Their calculations indicate that lightning-driven mortality accounts for 2.1–2.9% of annual global plant biomass loss. The decay of that biomass releases an estimated 0.77–1.09 billion tonnes of CO₂ every year. Astonishingly, that is nearly on par with the ~1.26 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted by the burning of living plants in wildfires annually. (Total wildfire emissions are roughly 5.85 billion tonnes of CO₂ when deadwood and soil organic matter are included.)

At present, lightning-induced tree deaths are concentrated in the tropics. But projections suggest storm electrification will intensify mainly in mid- and high-latitude regions, potentially making lightning a much more significant disturbance agent in temperate and boreal forests as well. “Most climate models point to more lightning in the future, so this largely overlooked driver of forest change deserves closer scrutiny,” Krause notes.

Publication
Andreas Krause, Konstantin Gregor et al. (2025): “Simulating Lightning-Induced Tree Mortality in the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS.” Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70312

Further information
The Professorship of Land Surface–Atmosphere Interactions is part of the TUM School of Life Sciences.

Media Contacts:

Corporate Communications Center
Anja Lapac
presse@tum.de

Contacts to this article:

Dr. Andreas Krause
Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Professorship of Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions
andy.krause@tum.de
Tel.: +49 8161-71 4726

SOURCE: Technical University of Munich