Global Warming Amplifies Risks: UEA-Led Study Warns of Heightened Climate Threats to Developing Countries

Global Warming Amplifies Risks: UEA-Led Study Warns of Heightened Climate Threats to Developing Countries Getty. images.

(IN BRIEF) A research program led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) has quantified how climate change risks increase at a national scale with rising global temperatures. Focusing on six countries including Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India, the studies show that risks of drought, floods, crop yield declines, and biodiversity loss amplify with each degree of warming. Limiting warming to 1.5°C could significantly reduce these risks. The findings underscore the urgent need for global climate action aligned with the Paris Agreement. The research emphasizes the importance of national-scale assessments in informing policy decisions and advocates for ecosystem restoration to mitigate climate impacts.

(PRESS RELEASE) NORWICH, 29-Feb-2024 — /EuropaWire/ — A comprehensive research initiative spearheaded by the University of East Anglia, a public research university based in Norwich, England, has meticulously analyzed the amplification of climate change threats to both human societies and natural ecosystems on a national scale in response to escalating global temperatures.

Comprising a series of eight studies concentrated on Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India, the research underscores the heightened risks of droughts, floods, dwindling crop yields, and the depletion of biodiversity and natural assets with each incremental rise in global warming.

The culmination of this endeavor, encapsulating the collective insights from the investigations, has been unveiled in a seminal paper published today in the esteemed journal Climatic Change. To facilitate broader comprehension, a set of informative infographics summarizing the study findings can be accessed at https://avoidedimpacts.science/.

One of the key findings highlights a substantial surge in the vulnerability of agricultural lands to prolonged droughts, with projections indicating that over 50 percent of agricultural areas in each country could be subject to severe drought conditions lasting more than a year within a 30-year timeframe under a 3°C warming scenario.

Nevertheless, adhering to the ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C could mitigate these risks significantly, potentially reducing the exposure of agricultural lands to drought by up to 61 percent in Ethiopia and 21 percent in India, while also curbing economic losses attributable to riverine flooding.

The research underscores the imperative of intensified global efforts to curb climate change, cautioning that prevailing policies are on track to culminate in a 3°C rise in global temperatures.

In addition to the synthesis paper, two companion studies have been unveiled concurrently. One delves into the ramifications of biodiversity loss in the six nations, revealing heightened risks to plant and vertebrate species with escalating global temperatures. The other introduces a novel natural capital risk registry tailored to each country, integrating future projections of risks stemming from demographic shifts.

The amalgamation of these insights underscores that numerous regions within the six nations are already grappling with substantial natural capital risks even at 1.5°C warming, with the situation exacerbating drastically with further temperature increases. Moreover, the research advocates for an expansion of protected area networks to bolster climate-resilient biodiversity conservation efforts.

Professor Rachel Warren, lead of the program and primary author of the synthesis paper from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA, emphasized the pivotal role of national-scale assessments in informing policy decisions, stressing the urgency of aligning climate policies with the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement to avert widespread and escalating climate-related risks.

“Until now, people have used very different datasets and models to explore climate change risks in different countries, or have conducted global analyses that make it difficult to resolve the implications for individual countries.

“Since important decisions about climate change mitigation and adaptation are made at the national scale, national scale outputs are needed for informing policy. The results presented in this collection confirm the need for the implementation of climate policies aligned to the Paris Agreement limits if widespread and escalating climate change risk is to be avoided.

“They provide additional confirmation of the rapid escalation of climate change risks with global warming found in the IPCC 2022 report, which identifies how the risk of severe consequences increases with every additional increment of global warming.”

Echoing this sentiment, Dr. Jeff Price, a co-author from the Tyndall Centre at UEA, emphasized the need for concerted efforts in both climate mitigation and adaptation to mitigate risks to both human societies and ecosystems. He advocated for ecosystem restoration as a viable strategy to mitigate climate impacts while also sequestering carbon from the atmosphere.

“Although these studies focus on the risks to six countries only, other nations are projected to experience similar issues. Therefore, greater emphasis needs to be placed on both climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation to avoid large increases in risk to both human and natural systems.

“For example, a good way to combat the effects of climate change on natural systems and soak up carbon from the atmosphere is to restore ecosystems to their natural state, especially if warming can be held to 2 °C or less. This has the additional benefit of restoring the natural capital bank in these areas.”

The research, focusing primarily on developing nations across Asia, Africa, and South America, offers a nuanced examination of climate risks, drawing attention to the vulnerability of these regions to climate change. Spanning diverse socioeconomic contexts, the studies offer valuable insights into the cascading effects of climate change across various nations.

By providing a harmonized assessment of projected climate risks, the research endeavor aims to inform evidence-based policymaking and facilitate proactive measures to address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

The collection of papers, elucidating the risks associated with global warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 to 4°C above preindustrial levels across six nations, is poised to catalyze discourse and action towards a more sustainable and resilient future.

‘Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4°C above preindustrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries,’ authored by Rachel Warren et al., is now available in Climatic Change as of Wednesday, February 28th.

Media contact:
communications@uea.ac.uk

SOURCE: University of East Anglia