Global Outlook for the Challenging Autonomous Bus and Roboshuttle Markets

(IN BRIEF) The commercialization of autonomous buses and roboshuttles has faced delays, with progress falling short of expectations from 2022 to 2024. While these technologies promise cost savings and reduced labor pressures for operators, the number of active companies in this space has declined. Challenges include dynamic routes, public scrutiny, and safety concerns for passengers. Despite these hurdles, some companies have made strides, securing testing permits in cities like Singapore, France, China, and South Korea. Governments in China, the U.S., the UK, and Singapore have implemented policies to support the development of autonomous buses. Over the next decade, the deployment of roboshuttles is expected to increase gradually, with integration into public transport networks and a rise in on-demand services like robotaxis.

(PRESS RELEASE) CAMBRIDGE, 25-Sep-2024 — /EuropaWire/ — In recent years, the promise of a public transport revolution has been teased by autonomous buses and roboshuttles. These technologies promise to deliver significant cost reductions for operators and alleviate labor pressures. Over 50 autonomous bus and roboshuttle players once competed in this space. However, as the autonomous driving industry evolved during 2022-2024, the commercialization progress of autonomous buses and roboshuttles has been slow, falling short of industry expectations.

In their research, market intelligence firm IDTechEx has observed a yearly decline in the number of active companies from 2020 to 2024, and large-scale commercial testing has not been achieved. Roboshuttles need to overcome the uncertainties posed by dynamic routes and the performance challenges of navigating narrow urban streets. Testing in such areas, closer to residential zones, means these vehicles will be under greater public scrutiny. Buses face the challenge of maintaining relatively high speeds while ensuring the safety of dozens of passengers, which is crucial for gaining public trust.

Despite the challenges, some companies have successfully navigated the complexities surrounding autonomous buses and roboshuttles, securing government permits for testing. Currently, these vehicles are undergoing near-commercialization testing in cities such as Singapore, France, China, and South Korea. In several areas, these tests involve real passengers and take place in controlled environments. Over the next decade, autonomous buses and roboshuttles will need to demonstrate their commercial viability to continue attracting investment and garner government backing for market development and policy endorsement.

China has implemented proactive policies supporting autonomous buses and roboshuttles. The government is driving the development of these technologies through pilot projects and significant infrastructure investments. In the U.S., autonomous vehicle regulations are primarily governed at the state level, with states like California, Florida, and Arizona at the forefront of autonomous bus and roboshuttle testing.

Through the Automated Vehicle Act, the UK government is actively supporting the development of autonomous buses by providing a legal framework for testing and commercial deployment. Singapore is also a leader in testing autonomous vehicle technologies, adopting a steady and progressive approach.

Over the next 10 years, the number of cities deploying roboshuttles is expected to increase by one or two per year, initially focusing on pilot zones similar to those in Singapore, with later integration into urban public transportation networks as a last-mile solution. Autonomous bus pilots will continue to be primarily government-supported projects, such as Hyundai's operation of nighttime autonomous shuttles in South Korea. However, on-demand autonomous services are growing rapidly, with robotaxi services already operating in regions of the US and China.

For a more comprehensive global analysis of this topic, including 20-year market forecasts, please refer to the IDTechEx market report “Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts” – www.IDTechEx.com/AutonomousBus.

About IDTechEx

IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.

Media contact:

Charlotte Martin
Subscriptions Marketing Manager
press@IDTechEx.com
+44(0)1223 812300

FAQs: Autonomous Buses and Roboshuttles

1. What are autonomous buses and roboshuttles?
Autonomous buses and roboshuttles are driverless public transport vehicles designed to operate without human intervention, offering potential cost reductions and reduced labor dependency for operators. They can be used for various transportation needs, from scheduled bus routes to on-demand shuttle services.

2. What are the main challenges faced by autonomous buses and roboshuttles?
Challenges include navigating dynamic routes, maintaining safety for passengers, managing narrow urban streets, and gaining public trust through consistent performance. Additionally, large-scale commercial testing has been slower than expected, with significant technological hurdles to overcome.

3. Why has progress in the commercialization of autonomous buses been slow?
From 2020 to 2024, the number of active companies in the autonomous bus and roboshuttle space declined. Testing has been limited, and issues such as route navigation, safety, and public scrutiny in residential areas have slowed down commercialization efforts.

4. Where are autonomous buses and roboshuttles currently being tested?
Testing is taking place in cities like Singapore, France, China, and South Korea, with several areas allowing real passengers to use these services in controlled environments. Countries like the U.S., China, and the UK have been proactive in creating legal frameworks and regulations to support these technologies.

5. What role do governments play in the development of autonomous buses?
Governments in China, the U.S., and the UK have been supporting autonomous bus development through policies, pilot projects, and infrastructure investment. For example, the UK’s Automated Vehicle Act provides a legal framework for testing and deploying autonomous buses, while China has introduced pilot projects and significant investments in infrastructure.

6. What are the future projections for autonomous buses and roboshuttles?
Over the next decade, the deployment of roboshuttles is expected to increase by one or two cities per year, with initial operations in pilot zones. Eventually, these vehicles are expected to integrate into urban public transportation networks, serving as last-mile solutions. Additionally, on-demand autonomous services, such as robotaxis, are rapidly growing in regions like the U.S. and China.

7. How do autonomous buses and roboshuttles contribute to public transport?
Autonomous buses and roboshuttles offer the potential to reduce operating costs, alleviate labor shortages, and provide a more efficient solution for last-mile public transport needs. They may become a key part of sustainable, tech-driven urban transport systems.

8. Which regions are leading the way in testing and development of autonomous buses?
Countries like China, the U.S. (especially states like California, Florida, and Arizona), Singapore, South Korea, and the UK are leading the testing and development of autonomous buses and roboshuttles through government-backed initiatives and policies.

9. How will roboshuttles fit into public transportation networks?
Initially, roboshuttles will likely be deployed in pilot zones, gradually integrating into urban public transport networks. They are expected to serve as last-mile transportation options, complementing existing transport systems.

10. Where can I learn more about autonomous buses and roboshuttles?
For more detailed information, including market trends and future forecasts, you can refer to the IDTechEx market report “Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts” at www.IDTechEx.com/AutonomousBus.

SOURCE: IDTechEx