DNV Study Highlights Predictable Project Pipelines as Key to Lowering North Sea Offshore Wind Investment and Supply-Chain Costs

DNV Study Highlights Predictable Project Pipelines as Key to Lowering North Sea Offshore Wind Investment and Supply-Chain Costs

(IN BRIEF) A DNV-led joint industry study has found that industrialization, longer turbine production runs and more predictable project pipelines could reduce the levelized cost of energy from North Sea offshore wind by as much as 28% by 2050 under a high-volume deployment scenario. The analysis, conducted with eight companies spanning the European offshore wind supply chain, models three scenarios from 2025 to 2050 using turbines of around 15 MW on monopile foundations as a reference case. Under business-as-usual conditions, LCoE falls by about 5% by 2035, while longer production runs could increase the reduction to 14% by 2035 and 25% by 2050. In the highest-volume scenario, reductions reach approximately 19% by 2035 and 28% by 2050. DNV found that most savings come from lower turbine and project-development capital expenditure, supplemented by installation and substructure efficiencies. The report calls for predictable auction schedules, visible project pipelines, earlier standardisation of design interfaces and targeted supply-chain investment, while warning that irregular project flow currently poses a greater risk than insufficient manufacturing capacity. Ports and installation capacity could, however, become bottlenecks under accelerated deployment.

(PRESS RELEASE) HØVIK, 8-Sep-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — DNV has published new findings showing that greater industrialization, longer turbine production runs and more predictable offshore wind project pipelines could reduce the average lifetime cost of electricity from North Sea offshore wind projects by up to 28% by 2050 under a high-volume deployment scenario.

The analysis was carried out through a joint industry project (JIP) led by DNV and involving eight companies from across the European offshore wind supply chain. The work was initiated in response to rising project costs, inconsistent auction outcomes and stop-start development pipelines that have made investment decisions more difficult for developers, manufacturers, suppliers, ports and installation companies.

The study evaluates the levelized cost of energy (LCoE) across three North Sea deployment scenarios between 2025 and 2050 and examines whether longer production runs for established turbine platforms could reduce costs alongside continued turbine upscaling.

Three scenarios quantify the value of longer production runs

DNV’s modelling demonstrates how both overall market growth and the duration of turbine production runs can materially affect offshore wind economics.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, moderate market growth combined with a relatively short production run for the current turbine platform would reduce LCoE by approximately 5% by 2035.

If the same level of market growth is combined with longer production runs, the model indicates cost reductions of around 14% by 2035 and 25% by 2050.

Under the highest-volume scenario, sustained deployment and stronger market continuity increase the potential LCoE reduction to approximately 19% by 2035 and 28% by 2050.

The model uses wind turbines of around 15 MW installed on monopile foundations as its reference platform. DNV stressed that this assumption does not identify 15 MW as the optimum future turbine size and does not restrict continued development of larger or alternative turbine technologies.

Predictable project pipelines could strengthen investment case

DNV said one of the most important requirements for cost reduction is greater visibility and certainty around future offshore wind deployment.

Ditlev Engel, CEO, Energy Systems at DNV, said suppliers make investment decisions based on actual projects and firm capacity commitments rather than long-term targets alone.

While Europe’s offshore wind ambitions demonstrate substantial future demand, Engel said the industry also needs visible and investable project pipelines to justify capacity expansion and enable suppliers to make better use of existing manufacturing capability.

He added that steadier demand and longer production runs can improve utilisation of existing assets while also identifying where additional investment is genuinely required.

Report calls for more consistent auctions and earlier design alignment

The study recommends coordinated action across policymakers, developers, turbine manufacturers and suppliers.

DNV said governments should translate deployment objectives into clear project pipelines and consistent auction schedules, giving the supply chain greater confidence about future demand.

Developers and turbine manufacturers are encouraged to align earlier around common design envelopes and technical interfaces, reducing unnecessary variation between projects.

Suppliers, meanwhile, should focus investment on identified bottlenecks and capacity constraints before undertaking broader expansion.

This approach could help reduce duplication, shorten project schedules and limit the cost increases associated with bespoke engineering and repeated redesign.

Lower capital expenditure drives most of the potential savings

DNV found that most of the modelled LCoE reduction comes from lower capital expenditure, particularly through reduced turbine and project-development costs.

Additional savings are generated through lower installation and substructure costs.

Greater stability in turbine platforms and associated processes could also improve equipment reliability and energy output, while shorter development and installation schedules could bring projects into operation sooner.

Accelerated delivery would not only improve financial performance but could also allow renewable generation to displace fossil-fuel power earlier.

Existing European manufacturing capacity broadly sufficient in near term

The study concludes that existing European capacity can broadly meet near-term demand for offshore wind turbines in the approximately 15 MW class.

However, the highest-volume scenario creates increasing pressure elsewhere in the supply chain.

DNV found that port capacity becomes a constraint, while installation capacity approaches its practical limit, indicating that selected upgrades and expansion would be required if offshore wind deployment accelerates significantly.

Despite those potential bottlenecks, DNV said the more immediate concern is underutilisation rather than insufficient capacity.

Irregular project flow weakens the commercial case for suppliers to invest in new manufacturing, port and installation capability, which could leave the sector less able to respond when deployment eventually accelerates.

Standardization could improve reliability and reduce waste

DNV also identified environmental and operational benefits associated with more standardized turbine designs and project processes.

Stable designs could reduce waste, rework, transport requirements and energy consumption throughout manufacturing and installation.

Longer production runs may also allow suppliers and contractors to improve quality, reliability and efficiency through repetition and operational learning.

The combination of lower costs, reduced waste and faster project completion could strengthen the overall competitiveness and environmental performance of European offshore wind.

DNV says economic impact of standardization is now quantified

Peter Constantin Brun, Global Segment Leader, Offshore Wind at DNV, said industrialization and standardization have been widely discussed in the offshore wind industry for years, but their economic impact had not previously been quantified at this level of detail.

He said cooperation between the JIP partners enabled DNV to examine commercially sensitive aspects of the supply chain and document potential cost reductions of as much as 28% under favourable deployment conditions.

According to Brun, the findings provide both industry and policymakers with a practical basis for work aimed at making European offshore wind more cost-effective over the coming decade.

Long-term policy certainty seen as critical to capturing savings

DNV said the full cost-saving potential identified by the study will depend on governments providing greater long-term certainty.

That includes predictable project pipelines, regular auction schedules and regulatory frameworks that enable greater industrialization and standardization across the offshore wind supply chain.

The analysis draws on the DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2025, the North Sea Forecast, project pipeline data and deployment ambitions outlined in the Ostend and Hamburg declarations.

Joint industry project brings together offshore wind supply chain

The participating organisations in the JIP are:

DNV
EEW Special Pipe Constructions GmbH
Fred Olsen Windcarrier ASA
Groningen Seaports N.V.
Iemants N.V.
Jan De Nul N.V.
Van Oord Marine & Dredging Contractors
Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S
Vestas Wind Systems A/S

About DNV
DNV is an independent assurance and risk management provider, operating in more than 100 countries, with the purpose of safeguarding life, property, and the environment. Whether assessing a new ship design, qualifying technology for a floating wind farm, analyzing sensor data from a gas pipeline, or certifying a food company’s supply chain, DNV enables its customers and their stakeholders to manage technological and regulatory complexity with confidence. As a trusted voice for many of the world’s most successful organizations, we use our broad experience and deep expertise to advance safety and sustainable performance, set industry standards, and inspire and invent solutions.

In the energy industry
DNV provides assurance to the entire energy value chain through its advisory, monitoring, verification, and certification services. As the world’s leading resource of independent energy experts and technical advisors, the assurance provider helps industries and governments to navigate the many complex, interrelated transitions taking place globally and regionally, in the energy industry. DNV is committed to realizing the goals of the Paris Agreement, and supports customers to transition faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system.

Media Contact:

Neil James Slater
Head of Media Relations, Energy Systems
+442038165702
contact.energysystems@dnv.com

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SOURCE: DNV