BP Provides Q1 2025 Guidance Amid Mixed Upstream Performance and Shifting Trading Conditions

BP Provides Q1 2025 Guidance Amid Mixed Upstream Performance and Shifting Trading Conditions

(IN BRIEF) BP p.l.c. has issued a Trading Statement outlining its current estimates and expectations for the first quarter of 2025, with insights into the economic environment and group performance. The statement clarifies that while it provides key guidance, it does not account for all variables that might affect the group’s results in Q1 2025. Notably, BP highlights an expected decline in upstream production compared to the previous quarter—where oil output is slightly up, but gas and low carbon energy are expected to drop due to recent divestments in Egypt and Trinidad. In the gas and low carbon energy segment, while sales realizations remain flat, weaker marketing and trading outcomes are anticipated. Similarly, oil production and operations are forecasted to maintain flat realizations due to price lag effects. In the customers & products segment, favorable midstream cost efficiencies and robust refining margins are expected to counterbalance seasonally lower volumes. Additionally, BP anticipates net debt to increase by around $4 billion driven by working capital build-up, with the underlying effective tax rate projected at approximately 50%. Trading conditions for the period saw Brent crude and the US gas Henry Hub index increase compared to Q4 2024, while the bp RMM also registered an increase. The final group results will be published on 29 April 2025.

(PRESS RELEASE) LONDON, 11-Apr-2025 — /EuropaWire/ — This Trading Statement summarizes BP p.l.c.’s (bp) current expectations for the first quarter of 2025, covering both the economic landscape and the group’s performance during the period. It is important to note that the information provided does not encompass every factor that could affect bp’s group results for Q1 2025, nor does it serve as a complete forecast. For further context, please refer to bp’s fourth quarter and full year 2024 group results announcement dated 11 February 2025, as the guidance items for both the first quarter and full year 2025 will remain in effect unless explicitly updated. A summary of that guidance is also included in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All details are subject to bp’s financial reporting finalization, and actual results may differ from these early estimates.

BP’s group results for Q1 2025 are scheduled for publication on 29 April 2025.

Updated 1Q25 Guidance

• Upstream Production: Q1 production is forecasted to be lower than in the previous quarter. Specifically, oil production and operations are anticipated to be slightly higher, while gas and low carbon energy production is expected to decline. This reduction is partially due to the completion of announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad at the end of the previous quarter.
• Gas & Low Carbon Energy: Realizations for this segment are projected to remain broadly flat compared to Q4 2024, despite shifts in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. However, the gas marketing and trading results are expected to be weak.
• Oil Production & Operations: In this segment, realizations are also forecasted to be broadly flat relative to the prior quarter. This stability comes even with the presence of price lags affecting bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.
• Customers & Products: Compared with the previous quarter, the results in this segment will be influenced by:
  • Customers: Lower costs and improved midstream performance are expected to partially offset seasonally reduced volumes.
  • Products: Stronger refining margins, estimated to range between $0.1 and $0.3 billion, coupled with a lesser impact from turnaround activities, are anticipated. Meanwhile, oil trading results should be average.
• Other Items:
  • Net debt at Q1’s end is expected to be approximately $4 billion higher than in Q4, primarily due to a build-up in working capital. This effect is largely seasonal and is anticipated to reverse, influenced by inventory timing, annual bonus payments, and settlements related to low carbon assets held for sale.
  • The underlying effective tax rate for Q1 is expected to be about 50%, reflecting the geographical profit distribution.

Trading conditions for the period include:

• Brent crude averaging $75.73 per barrel in Q1 2025 versus $74.73 per barrel in Q4 2024.
• The US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.65 per mmBtu in Q1 2025 compared to $2.79 per mmBtu in Q4 2024.
• The bp RMM* averaged $15.2 per barrel in Q1 2025, up from $13.1 per barrel in Q4 2024.

Additional details regarding prices and bp’s current rules of thumb can be accessed at bp.com Rules of Thumb.

Cautionary statement

In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement: The discussion in this announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements – that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances – with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp. Actual results or outcomes, may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including (without limitation): price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; changes in demand for bp’s products; currency fluctuations; drilling and production results; reserves estimates; sales volume and sales mix numbers; supply and demand imbalances including as a result of direct or indirect restrictions on production; regional pricing differentials and refining margins; seasonal impacts on product demand and operating expenses; resolution of trading and derivative positions for the quarter; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Furthermore, additional factors may exist that will be relevant to bp’s group results for the first quarter of 2025 that are not currently known or fully understood. Neither bp nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update, revise or supplement any forward-looking statement contained in this announcement to reflect future circumstances, events or information.

The contents of websites referred to in this announcement do not form part of this announcement.

This announcement contains inside information. The person responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of BP p.l.c., is Ben Mathews, Company Secretary.

Media Contact:

bp press office, London: bppress@bp.com
Tel: +44 7766443675, +44 7919 217511

Investor relations: bp.com/investors

SOURCE: BP