BBVA Research Calls for COP31 in Türkiye to Turn Climate Commitments Into Verifiable Action Backed by Financing, Accountability and Measurable Results

BBVA Research Calls for COP31 in Türkiye to Turn Climate Commitments Into Verifiable Action Backed by Financing, Accountability and Measurable Results

(IN BRIEF) BBVA Research is urging COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, to move international climate policy from commitments toward measurable implementation, arguing that the success of the summit should be judged by concrete policies, investable projects, financing arrangements, accountability and verifiable results rather than the number of new initiatives announced. Its report, “COP31: From Commitments to Credible Delivery,” notes that projected warming under current policies has declined from about 3.7°C in 2015 to 2.8°C in 2025, while full implementation of existing NDCs could reduce the estimate to 2.3°C–2.5°C, still above Paris Agreement objectives. BBVA Research identifies both an implementation gap and an ambition gap and highlights climate finance as a critical constraint: developed-country climate finance for developing economies exceeded $130 billion in 2023 and 2024, while the NCQG targets at least $300 billion annually by 2035 within a broader ambition to mobilise $1.3 trillion a year. The report proposes a five-point scorecard covering quantified targets, implementation responsibility, financing, public monitoring and consistency with climate goals, arguing that COP31 must demonstrate execution discipline across mitigation, adaptation, just transition and financing.

(PRESS RELEASE) BILBAO, 8-Sep-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — BBVA Research is calling for COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, to shift the focus of international climate negotiations from announcing additional commitments toward delivering concrete, measurable and verifiable action.

In its report, “COP31: From Commitments to Credible Delivery,” BBVA’s research unit argues that the international climate governance framework already contains extensive commitments and initiatives, but a significant gap remains between stated objectives and their implementation. Financing will be one of the critical factors determining whether agreed climate measures can be converted into real-world results.

COP31 should focus on implementation rather than new commitments

Over the past three decades, the Conferences of the Parties have established the international architecture for addressing climate change, with the 2015 Paris Agreement introducing nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, alongside mechanisms covering transparency, climate finance, adaptation and carbon markets.

BBVA Research argues that the priority has now shifted from designing additional frameworks toward ensuring existing objectives are supported by actionable policies, appropriate financing, clearly identified implementation responsibilities and credible mechanisms for measuring results.

Julián Cubero, Lead Economist for Climate Change at BBVA Research, said COP31 should represent a transition from commitments toward implementation, with greater emphasis on ensuring that climate targets can be quantified, financed and monitored.

Current policies remain insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals

The report cites United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) data showing that projected global warming under current policies has declined from approximately 3.7°C in 2015 to around 2.8°C in 2025.

If all current nationally determined contributions were fully implemented, the projected increase could fall further to approximately 2.3°C to 2.5°C.

However, BBVA Research notes that both scenarios remain above the temperature objectives established under the Paris Agreement.

The analysis identifies two principal challenges.

The first is an implementation gap between national climate commitments and the policies governments actually put in place.

The second is an ambition gap between those commitments themselves and the level of action required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term objectives.

BBVA Research proposes judging COP31 by delivery

Rather than measuring COP31 primarily by the number of initiatives announced, BBVA Research argues that the summit should be assessed according to its ability to convert agreements into policies, projects, financing arrangements and monitoring systems.

One mechanism examined in the report is the Climate Implementation Bridge, designed to connect NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with economic policy, investable projects and sources of financing, particularly in developing economies.

BBVA Research said mechanisms of this kind can help close the gap between national climate planning and projects capable of attracting capital and reaching implementation.

COP31 targets span electrification, waste, buildings and circular materials

The report assesses several targets proposed in connection with COP31.

These include increasing electricity’s share of final energy demand from just above 20% today to 35% by 2035, halving the growth of global waste by the same year, reducing the energy intensity of buildings by at least 25%, and raising the use of circular materials in industry to at least 15%.

BBVA Research cautions that electrification alone will not necessarily deliver the required emissions reductions.

Additional electricity demand will increasingly need to be supplied by low-carbon generation and supported by sufficient grid infrastructure, energy storage and policies capable of replacing fossil-fuel consumption.

Climate finance remains a major implementation challenge

Financing is one of the principal gaps identified in the report.

According to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data cited by BBVA Research, climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries for developing economies increased from around $50 billion in 2013 to more than $130 billion in both 2023 and 2024.

Despite that increase, significantly greater funding will be required to support the scale of investment envisaged under international climate commitments.

The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) agreed at COP29 establishes a target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035, led by developed countries.

That forms part of a broader objective to mobilise at least $1.3 trillion per year in public and private finance for developing countries.

Public and private actors will be critical to implementation

BBVA Research argues that climate summits need to operate not only as venues for intergovernmental agreements but also as catalysts for real-world implementation.

The report highlights the importance of a wider ecosystem involving governments, cities, businesses and financial institutions, particularly where formal multilateral negotiations may progress more slowly.

Initiatives such as the Breakthrough Agenda, First Movers Coalition and Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) demonstrate how sector-based collaboration and public-private financing mechanisms can help create investable projects, establish markets for clean technologies and coordinate key participants.

Climate initiatives need rigorous implementation criteria

Ahead of the Antalya summit, BBVA Research stresses that climate initiatives should be assessed through strict execution discipline.

Mechanisms such as the Climate Implementation Bridge and Global Implementation Accelerator will only create meaningful value if they translate commitments into policies and investments capable of producing tangible changes in the real economy.

The report says success will also depend on establishing interim milestones, identifying specific financing sources and instruments and defining the conditions under which funding can be accessed.

Five-point scorecard proposed for climate agreements

BBVA Research proposes a five-criterion scorecard for evaluating whether climate initiatives are sufficiently structured to produce measurable results.

First, initiatives should include a quantified target, baseline and deadline.

Second, they should identify the policies, projects and institutions responsible for delivery.

Third, they should specify financing sources and mechanisms.

Fourth, agreements should establish public performance indicators and a defined reporting frequency.

Finally, initiatives should demonstrate that their objectives are consistent with broader climate goals.

COP31 outcome will depend on measurable progress

BBVA Research concludes that the effectiveness of COP31 will ultimately depend on progress in implementing outstanding agreements covering adaptation, mitigation, just transition and climate finance.

It argues that credible monitoring mechanisms will also be essential to demonstrate whether agreed measures are producing actual results.

The research unit believes the success of the Türkiye summit should therefore be measured not by the volume of new pledges but by whether international climate governance can mobilise the policies, projects and capital required to create durable change across the global economy.

SOURCE: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.