Almost 1 in 4 Planes Sold in 2045 to be Battery Electric, Finds IDTechEx Sustainable Aviation Market Report

Energy and power requirements of planes of different sizes. Source: IDTechEx.

(IN BRIEF) A report by IDTechEx forecasts that nearly 25% of planes sold in 2045 will be battery-electric, despite challenges like battery weight, limited range, ownership costs, and variable carbon reduction depending on energy grid sources. Current batteries are 40 times less energy-dense than traditional fuels, leading to reduced range and heavier aircraft. While electric planes are feasible for short flights with niche applications, long-haul travel will likely rely on hydrogen and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The report explores business use cases, costs, and carbon impacts for electric and hydrogen aviation, highlighting pathways to overcome existing limitations.

(PRESS RELEASE) CAMBRIDGE, 15-Nov-2024 — /EuropaWire/ — It is no secret that the weight of batteries makes building electric planes an engineering challenge. It might be a surprise then that a recent research report from market intelligence firm IDTechEx, “Sustainable Future Aviation 2025-2045: Trends, Technologies, Forecasts”, predicts that almost one-quarter of planes sold in 2045 will be battery-electric powered. The report also highlights the scale of the challenges faced by electric aviation, with weight, range, ownership costs, and even carbon footprint all needing consideration. Despite this, IDTechEx believes that current technical trends combined with achievable business use cases will generate significant electric plane uptake in the future.

IDTechEx Principal Analyst Dr James Jeffs, lead author of the report, observes that when building an electric airplane, the primary challenge is energy density. This is the amount of energy the battery contains per kilogram.

Dr Jeffs explains, “Traditional fuels like AV Gas are exceptionally energy-dense at around 43MJ/kg or 12kWh/kg. By comparison, the best battery technologies today are around 0.3kWh/kg, meaning they are 40 times heavier for the same amount of energy. Thankfully, electric propulsion is much more efficient than internal combustion, which helps to offset this deficit, but not enough. Electric planes end up being heavier than their internal combustion rivals while also having significant range reductions, typically in the range of 80-90% less.”

In addition to batteries being heavy, the intense usage they will experience in an airplane application will likely shorten their usable life span, creating a cost of ownership issue.

Dr Jeffs advises that owners will also have to consider the carbon impact of running an electric plane. The green credentials of an electric vehicle are highly dependent on the grid mix of the country it is operated in, that is, the methods it uses to generate electricity. Operating an electric plane in a European country with a clean energy mix would reduce CO2 by more than 90%, but in the US, where lots of fossil fuel is still used to produce electricity, the reduction is only 56%.

Despite these challenges, IDTechEx’s research finds that there are pathways to improving the situation, including new and emerging battery chemistries, modifications to the airframe, larger batteries, and better access to low-carbon energy supply.

Even with the current technological limitations, research by the IDTechEx team finds that today’s technologies can produce two-seat planes with a flight endurance of one hour. While this might sound extremely limited, the research finds that there are several use cases where a one-hour flight can provide significant value.

Despite the promise that electrification has, it will not be the answer to all future air travel. Even with the most optimistic assumptions for future battery performance, it is unlikely an electric commercial airline would ever be able to cross continents or oceans. For these larger journeys, the industry will have to turn to hydrogen and SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) to decarbonize.

IDTechEx’s report “Sustainable Future Aviation 2025-2045: Trends, Technologies, Forecasts” explores business use cases from a feasibility, total cost of ownership, and carbon perspective for electric and hydrogen planes. It also considers different plane types. For more information and free sample slides, visit www.IDTechEx.com/SustAviation.

About IDTechEx

IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com .

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FAQs: Sustainable Future of Electric Aviation

1. Why are electric planes challenging to develop?
The main challenge lies in the low energy density of current batteries compared to traditional aviation fuels. Batteries are significantly heavier for the same amount of energy, which reduces range and increases aircraft weight. Additional issues include battery lifespan, ownership costs, and dependency on the carbon footprint of the electricity grid.

2. How much more efficient are electric planes compared to traditional planes?
Electric propulsion systems are more efficient than internal combustion engines, which offsets some of the disadvantages of low energy density. However, even with this efficiency, electric planes still have 80-90% less range than traditional aircraft.

3. What use cases are feasible for electric planes today?
Electric planes are currently viable for small-scale applications, such as two-seat aircraft with one-hour flight endurance. These planes can be used for short-haul trips, pilot training, or regional commutes where limited range is not a barrier.

4. How environmentally friendly are electric planes?
The environmental impact of electric planes depends on the energy mix of the grid used for charging. In countries with clean energy grids, electric planes can reduce CO2 emissions by over 90%. However, in regions relying heavily on fossil fuels, the reduction is less significant, around 56%.

5. What technological advancements are needed for electric aviation to scale up?
Key advancements include:

• New battery chemistries with higher energy density.
• Modifications to airframe designs to accommodate heavier batteries.
• Larger batteries for increased range.
• Greater availability of low-carbon energy sources for charging.

6. Can electric planes replace traditional commercial aircraft for long-haul travel?
No, even with optimistic assumptions for future battery performance, electric planes are unlikely to replace traditional aircraft for long-haul flights. For such journeys, the industry is exploring alternative solutions like hydrogen fuel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

7. What role do hydrogen and SAF play in aviation’s future?
Hydrogen and SAF are seen as critical for decarbonizing long-haul flights and routes that are beyond the technical capabilities of electric planes. These technologies complement electric aviation by addressing different segments of the market.

8. What insights does the IDTechEx report offer?
The IDTechEx report provides an in-depth analysis of the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of electric and hydrogen planes. It explores use cases, total cost of ownership, and the feasibility of sustainable aviation technologies from 2025 to 2045.

9. Where can I find more information about the report?
The full report, Sustainable Future Aviation 2025-2045: Trends, Technologies, Forecasts, is available on the IDTechEx website. You can also request free sample slides for a detailed overview.

SOURCE: IDTechEx