ABN AMRO raises 2026 Dutch house price outlook while projecting sharper cooling in 2027

(PRESS RELEASE) AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, 2-Oct-2026 — /EuropaWire/ — ABN AMRO has revised its outlook for the Dutch housing market after stronger-than-expected performance in 2026, while forecasting a more pronounced slowdown in 2027. The bank has increased its house price growth forecast for 2026 from 3 percent to 3.8 percent and reduced its forecast for 2027 from 4 percent to 2.5 percent.

ABN AMRO has also adjusted its expectations for housing transactions. The projected decline for 2026 has been revised from 3 percent to 0.5 percent, while transaction volumes are now expected to fall by 5.5 percent in 2027, compared with the previous forecast of 4 percent. According to the bank, the main factor behind the anticipated slowdown is that mortgage rates are likely to remain higher for longer than previously expected. Even so, ABN AMRO does not currently forecast a decline in house prices. The conclusions are set out in the latest edition of the Woningmarktmonitor (Housing Market Monitor).

Regions outside the Randstad are catching up

Significant regional differences remain beneath the national averages. Price growth in urban areas is losing momentum, while rural regions are recording stronger increases. Groningen, Drenthe and Gelderland are showing the strongest house price growth and are lifting the national average.

By contrast, price growth in the Randstad is slowing, with Amsterdam at the forefront of the cooling trend. In the second quarter, house prices in the Dutch capital were 0.8 percent higher than a year earlier, considerably below the national average increase of 4.2 percent and the 7.9 percent rise recorded in Groningen.

ABN AMRO regards Amsterdam as a barometer for the broader Dutch housing market. The cooling already visible in the capital could therefore provide an early indication of how the slowdown may develop in other regions over time.

Strong fundamentals continue to underpin the housing market

ABN AMRO expects the measures presented by the Dutch government on Budget Day to have only a limited impact on the housing market in the short term. Most of the proposed policies are directed at investors and the rental sector, while the measures affecting homebuyers are expected to have a combination of positive and negative effects.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), for example, expects purchasing power to decline, particularly among higher-income households. At the same time, the maximum rate at which mortgage interest can be deducted from taxable income will increase. It was also announced earlier that the transfer tax exemption for first-time buyers will be expanded in 2027, with the eligibility threshold rising from € 555,000 to € 615,000. The National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) limit is also expected to increase.

Mike Langen, Senior Housing Market Economist at ABN AMRO, said:

“First-time buyers stand to benefit most from these measures, as transaction costs will fall and more homes will qualify for the exemption,” says Mike Langen, Senior Housing Market Economist at ABN AMRO. “That does not change the fact that affordability remains under pressure. Mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer, income growth is slowing and the housing shortage remains substantial. Together, these factors will take some of the heat out of the market, but we do not currently anticipate a fall in house prices. Overall, the Dutch housing market remains robust.”